Nicolas Chapados

Can AI Read the Minds of Corporate Executives?

Zhenzhen Fan

Ruslan Goyenko

Issam Hadj Laradji

Fred Liu

Chengyu Zhang

2023-01-01

SSRN Electronic Journal (publié)

Lag-Llama: Towards Foundation Models for Time Series Forecasting

Kashif Rasul

Arjun Ashok

Andrew Robert Williams

Arian Khorasani

George Adamopoulos

Rishika Bhagwatkar

Marin Biloš

Hena Ghonia

N. Hassen

Anderson Schneider

Sahil Garg

Alexandre Drouin

Yuriy Nevmyvaka

Irina Rish

Aiming to build foundation models for time-series forecasting and study their scaling behavior, we present here our work-in-progress on Lag-… (voir plus)Llama , a general-purpose univariate probabilistic time-series forecasting model trained on a large collection of time-series data. The model shows good zero-shot prediction capabilities on unseen “out-of-distribution” time-series datasets, outperforming supervised baselines. We use smoothly broken power-laws [7] to fit and predict model scaling behavior. The open source code is made available at https://github

2023-01-01

arXiv.org (prépublication)

TACTiS: Transformer-Attentional Copulas for Time Series

Alexandre Drouin

Étienne Marcotte

The estimation of time-varying quantities is a fundamental component of decision making in fields such as healthcare and finance. However, t… (voir plus)he practical utility of such estimates is limited by how accurately they quantify predictive uncertainty. In this work, we address the problem of estimating the joint predictive distribution of high-dimensional multivariate time series. We propose a versatile method, based on the transformer architecture, that estimates joint distributions using an attention-based decoder that provably learns to mimic the properties of non-parametric copulas. The resulting model has several desirable properties: it can scale to hundreds of time series, supports both forecasting and interpolation, can handle unaligned and non-uniformly sampled data, and can seamlessly adapt to missing data during training. We demonstrate these properties empirically and show that our model produces state-of-the-art predictions on multiple real-world datasets.

2022-02-07

ArXiv (prépublication)

TACTiS: Transformer-Attentional Copulas for Time Series

Alexandre Drouin

Étienne Marcotte

The estimation of time-varying quantities is a fundamental component of decision making in fields such as healthcare and finance. However, t… (voir plus)he practical utility of such estimates is limited by how accurately they quantify predictive uncertainty. In this work, we address the problem of estimating the joint predictive distribution of high-dimensional multivariate time series. We propose a versatile method, based on the transformer architecture, that estimates joint distributions using an attention-based decoder that provably learns to mimic the properties of non-parametric copulas. The resulting model has several desirable properties: it can scale to hundreds of time series, supports both forecasting and interpolation, can handle unaligned and non-uniformly sampled data, and can seamlessly adapt to missing data during training. We demonstrate these properties empirically and show that our model produces state-of-the-art predictions on multiple real-world datasets.

2022-01-01

ICML (publié)

proceedings.mlr.press

Meta-learning framework with applications to zero-shot time-series forecasting

Boris Oreshkin

Dmitri Carpov

Can meta-learning discover generic ways of processing time series (TS) from a diverse dataset so as to greatly improve generalization on new… (voir plus) TS coming from different datasets? This work provides positive evidence to this using a broad meta-learning framework which we show subsumes many existing meta-learning algorithms. Our theoretical analysis suggests that residual connections act as a meta-learning adaptation mechanism, generating a subset of task-specific parameters based on a given TS input, thus gradually expanding the expressive power of the architecture on-the-fly. The same mechanism is shown via linearization analysis to have the interpretation of a sequential update of the final linear layer. Our empirical results on a wide range of data emphasize the importance of the identified meta-learning mechanisms for successful zero-shot univariate forecasting, suggesting that it is viable to train a neural network on a source TS dataset and deploy it on a different target TS dataset without retraining, resulting in performance that is at least as good as that of state-of-practice univariate forecasting models.

2021-05-18

Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (publié)

Meta-learning framework with applications to zero-shot time-series forecasting

Boris Oreshkin

Dmitri Carpov

Can meta-learning discover generic ways of processing time series (TS) from a diverse dataset so as to greatly improve generalization on new… (voir plus) TS coming from different datasets? This work provides positive evidence to this using a broad meta-learning framework which we show subsumes many existing meta-learning algorithms. Our theoretical analysis suggests that residual connections act as a meta-learning adaptation mechanism, generating a subset of task-specific parameters based on a given TS input, thus gradually expanding the expressive power of the architecture on-the-fly. The same mechanism is shown via linearization analysis to have the interpretation of a sequential update of the final linear layer. Our empirical results on a wide range of data emphasize the importance of the identified meta-learning mechanisms for successful zero-shot univariate forecasting, suggesting that it is viable to train a neural network on a source TS dataset and deploy it on a different target TS dataset without retraining, resulting in performance that is at least as good as that of state-of-practice univariate forecasting models.

2020-02-07

ArXiv (prépublication)

N-BEATS: Neural basis expansion analysis for interpretable time series forecasting

Boris Oreshkin

Dmitri Carpov

We focus on solving the univariate times series point forecasting problem using deep learning. We propose a deep neural architecture based o… (voir plus)n backward and forward residual links and a very deep stack of fully-connected layers. The architecture has a number of desirable properties, being interpretable, applicable without modification to a wide array of target domains, and fast to train. We test the proposed architecture on several well-known datasets, including M3, M4 and TOURISM competition datasets containing time series from diverse domains. We demonstrate state-of-the-art performance for two configurations of N-BEATS for all the datasets, improving forecast accuracy by 11% over a statistical benchmark and by 3% over last year's winner of the M4 competition, a domain-adjusted hand-crafted hybrid between neural network and statistical time series models. The first configuration of our model does not employ any time-series-specific components and its performance on heterogeneous datasets strongly suggests that, contrarily to received wisdom, deep learning primitives such as residual blocks are by themselves sufficient to solve a wide range of forecasting problems. Finally, we demonstrate how the proposed architecture can be augmented to provide outputs that are interpretable without considerable loss in accuracy.

2020-01-01

ICLR (publié)

openreview.net

N-BEATS: Neural basis expansion analysis for interpretable time series forecasting

Boris Oreshkin

Dmitri Carpov

We focus on solving the univariate times series point forecasting problem using deep learning. We propose a deep neural architecture based o… (voir plus)n backward and forward residual links and a very deep stack of fully-connected layers. The architecture has a number of desirable properties, being interpretable, applicable without modification to a wide array of target domains, and fast to train. We test the proposed architecture on several well-known datasets, including M3, M4 and TOURISM competition datasets containing time series from diverse domains. We demonstrate state-of-the-art performance for two configurations of N-BEATS for all the datasets, improving forecast accuracy by 11% over a statistical benchmark and by 3% over last year's winner of the M4 competition, a domain-adjusted hand-crafted hybrid between neural network and statistical time series models. The first configuration of our model does not employ any time-series-specific components and its performance on heterogeneous datasets strongly suggests that, contrarily to received wisdom, deep learning primitives such as residual blocks are by themselves sufficient to solve a wide range of forecasting problems. Finally, we demonstrate how the proposed architecture can be augmented to provide outputs that are interpretable without considerable loss in accuracy.

2019-05-24

ArXiv (prépublication)