Andrew Williams

Phillip Wozny

Kai-Hendrik Cohrs

Koen Ponse

Marco Jiralerspong

Soham Phade

Sunil Srinivasa

Lu Li

Yang Zhang

Prateek Gupta

Erman Acar

Irina Rish

Stephan Zheng

Comprehensive global cooperation is essential to limit global temperature increases while continuing economic development, e.g., reducing se… (voir plus)vere inequality or achieving long-term economic growth. Achieving long-term cooperation on climate change mitigation with n strategic agents poses a complex game-theoretic problem. For example, agents may negotiate and reach climate agreements, but there is no central authority to enforce adherence to those agreements. Hence, it is critical to design negotiation and agreement frameworks that foster cooperation, allow all agents to meet their individual policy objectives, and incentivize long-term adherence. This is an interdisciplinary challenge that calls for collaboration between researchers in machine learning, economics, climate science, law, policy, ethics, and other fields. In particular, we argue that machine learning is a critical tool to address the complexity of this domain. To facilitate this research, here we introduce RICE-N, a multi-region integrated assessment model that simulates the global climate and economy, and which can be used to design and evaluate the strategic outcomes for different negotiation and agreement frameworks. We also describe how to use multi-agent reinforcement learning to train rational agents using RICE-N. This framework underpinsAI for Global Climate Cooperation, a working group collaboration and competition on climate negotiation and agreement design. Here, we invite the scientific community to design and evaluate their solutions using RICE-N, machine learning, economic intuition, and other domain knowledge. More information can be found on www.ai4climatecoop.org.

2025-04-30

ICML.cc/2025/Conference (poster)

proceedings.mlr.press

Proactive Contact Tracing

Prateek Gupta

Tegan Maharaj

Martin Weiss

Nasim Rahaman

Hannah Alsdurf

Nanor Minoyan

Soren Harnois-Leblanc

Joanna Merckx

Victor Schmidt

Pierre-Luc St-Charles

Akshay Patel

Yang Zhang

David L. Buckeridge

Christopher Pal

Bernhard Schölkopf

The COVID-19 pandemic has spurred an unprecedented demand for interventions that can reduce disease spread without excessively restricting d… (voir plus)aily activity, given negative impacts on mental health and economic outcomes. Digital contact tracing (DCT) apps have emerged as a component of the epidemic management toolkit. Existing DCT apps typically recommend quarantine to all digitally-recorded contacts of test-confirmed cases. Over-reliance on testing may, however, impede the effectiveness of such apps, since by the time cases are confirmed through testing, onward transmissions are likely to have occurred. Furthermore, most cases are infectious over a short period; only a subset of their contacts are likely to become infected. These apps do not fully utilize data sources to base their predictions of transmission risk during an encounter, leading to recommendations of quarantine to many uninfected people and associated slowdowns in economic activity. This phenomenon, commonly termed as “pingdemic,” may additionally contribute to reduced compliance to public health measures. In this work, we propose a novel DCT framework, Proactive Contact Tracing (PCT), which uses multiple sources of information (e.g. self-reported symptoms, received messages from contacts) to estimate app users’ infectiousness histories and provide behavioral recommendations. PCT methods are by design proactive, predicting spread before it occurs. We present an interpretable instance of this framework, the Rule-based PCT algorithm, designed via a multi-disciplinary collaboration among epidemiologists, computer scientists, and behavior experts. Finally, we develop an agent-based model that allows us to compare different DCT methods and evaluate their performance in negotiating the trade-off between epidemic control and restricting population mobility. Performing extensive sensitivity analysis across user behavior, public health policy, and virological parameters, we compare Rule-based PCT to i) binary contact tracing (BCT), which exclusively relies on test results and recommends a fixed-duration quarantine, and ii) household quarantine (HQ). Our results suggest that both BCT and Rule-based PCT improve upon HQ, however, Rule-based PCT is more efficient at controlling spread of disease than BCT across a range of scenarios. In terms of cost-effectiveness, we show that Rule-based PCT pareto-dominates BCT, as demonstrated by a decrease in Disability Adjusted Life Years, as well as Temporary Productivity Loss. Overall, we find that Rule-based PCT outperforms existing approaches across a varying range of parameters. By leveraging anonymized infectiousness estimates received from digitally-recorded contacts, PCT is able to notify potentially infected users earlier than BCT methods and prevent onward transmissions. Our results suggest that PCT-based applications could be a useful tool in managing future epidemics.

2023-02-28

PLOS Digital Health (publié)

(Private)-Retroactive Carbon Pricing [(P)ReCaP]: A Market-based Approach for Climate Finance and Risk Assessment

Prateek Gupta

Dylan Radovic

Maarten Scholl

Christian Schroeder de Witt

Tianyu Zhang

Yang Zhang

Insufficient Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) estimation methods and short-term decision-making horizons have hindered the ability of carbon emit… (voir plus)ters to properly correct for the negative externalities of climate change, as well as the capacity of nations to balance economic and climate policy. To overcome these limitations, we introduce Retrospective Social Cost of Carbon Updating (ReSCCU), a novel mechanism that corrects for these limitations as empirically measured evidence is collected. To implement ReSCCU in the context of carbon taxation, we propose Retroactive Carbon Pricing (ReCaP), a market mechanism in which polluters offload the payment of ReSCCU adjustments to insurers. To alleviate systematic risks and minimize government involvement, we introduce the Private ReCaP (PReCaP) prediction market, which could see real-world implementation based on the engagement of a few high net-worth individuals or independent institutions.

2021-12-31

arXiv (prépublication)

arxiv.org

Predicting Infectiousness for Proactive Contact Tracing

Prateek Gupta

Nasim Rahaman

Pierre-Luc St. Charles

Hannah Alsdurf

Olexa Bilaniuk

David Buckeridge

Gaétan Marceau-Caron

Pierre-Luc Carrier

Joumana Ghosn

Satya Ortiz-Gagné

Chris Pal

Irina Rish

Bernhard Schölkopf … (voir 3 de plus)

Abhinav Sharma

Jian Tang

The COVID-19 pandemic has spread rapidly worldwide, overwhelming manual contact tracing in many countries and resulting in widespread lockdo… (voir plus)wns for emergency containment. Large-scale digital contact tracing (DCT) has emerged as a potential solution to resume economic and social activity while minimizing spread of the virus. Various DCT methods have been proposed, each making trade-offs between privacy, mobility restrictions, and public health. The most common approach, binary contact tracing (BCT), models infection as a binary event, informed only by an individual's test results, with corresponding binary recommendations that either all or none of the individual's contacts quarantine. BCT ignores the inherent uncertainty in contacts and the infection process, which could be used to tailor messaging to high-risk individuals, and prompt proactive testing or earlier warnings. It also does not make use of observations such as symptoms or pre-existing medical conditions, which could be used to make more accurate infectiousness predictions. In this paper, we use a recently-proposed COVID-19 epidemiological simulator to develop and test methods that can be deployed to a smartphone to locally and proactively predict an individual's infectiousness (risk of infecting others) based on their contact history and other information, while respecting strong privacy constraints. Predictions are used to provide personalized recommendations to the individual via an app, as well as to send anonymized messages to the individual's contacts, who use this information to better predict their own infectiousness, an approach we call proactive contact tracing (PCT). We find a deep-learning based PCT method which improves over BCT for equivalent average mobility, suggesting PCT could help in safe re-opening and second-wave prevention.

2020-12-31

ICLR (publié)

openreview.net

COVI-AgentSim: an Agent-based Model for Evaluating Methods of Digital Contact Tracing

Prateek Gupta

Tegan Maharaj

Martin Weiss

Nasim Rahaman

Hannah Alsdurf

Abhinav Sharma

Nanor Minoyan

Soren Harnois Leblanc

Victor Schmidt

Pierre-Luc St. Charles

Akshay Patel

David Buckeridge … (voir 9 de plus)

Joumana Ghosn

Yang Zhang

Bernhard Schölkopf

Jian Tang

Irina Rish

Christopher Pal

Joanna Merckx

Eilif B. Muller

The rapid global spread of COVID-19 has led to an unprecedented demand for effective methods to mitigate the spread of the disease, and vari… (voir plus)ous digital contact tracing (DCT) methods have emerged as a component of the solution. In order to make informed public health choices, there is a need for tools which allow evaluation and comparison of DCT methods. We introduce an agent-based compartmental simulator we call COVI-AgentSim, integrating detailed consideration of virology, disease progression, social contact networks, and mobility patterns, based on parameters derived from empirical research. We verify by comparing to real data that COVI-AgentSim is able to reproduce realistic COVID-19 spread dynamics, and perform a sensitivity analysis to verify that the relative performance of contact tracing methods are consistent across a range of settings. We use COVI-AgentSim to perform cost-benefit analyses comparing no DCT to: 1) standard binary contact tracing (BCT) that assigns binary recommendations based on binary test results; and 2) a rule-based method for feature-based contact tracing (FCT) that assigns a graded level of recommendation based on diverse individual features. We find all DCT methods consistently reduce the spread of the disease, and that the advantage of FCT over BCT is maintained over a wide range of adoption rates. Feature-based methods of contact tracing avert more disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) per socioeconomic cost (measured by productive hours lost). Our results suggest any DCT method can help save lives, support re-opening of economies, and prevent second-wave outbreaks, and that FCT methods are a promising direction for enriching BCT using self-reported symptoms, yielding earlier warning signals and a significantly reduced spread of the virus per socioeconomic cost.

2020-10-01

OpenReview.net/Anonymous_Preprint (inconnu)