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Detecting individual tree crowns in tropical forests is essential to study these complex and crucial ecosystems impacted by human interventi… (see more)ons and climate change. However, tropical crowns vary widely in size, structure, and pattern and are largely overlapping and intertwined, requiring advanced remote sensing methods applied to high-resolution imagery. Despite growing interest in tropical tree crown detection, annotated datasets remain scarce, hindering robust model development. We introduce SelvaBox, the largest open‑access dataset for tropical tree crown detection in high-resolution drone imagery. It spans three countries and contains more than
2025-12-31
International Conference on Learning Representations (Accept (Poster))
The Delphi method is a structured forecasting process that engages experts in iterative prediction and reflection. Each round, experts submi… (see more)t forecasts to a mediator, receive an aggregated and synthesized response highlighting key arguments, and update their forecasts based on collective insight. However, Delphi panels are labour intensive, slow and hard to reproduce, requiring diverse knowledgeable participants to engage periodically across weeks or months. To address these constraints, we propose **DeLLMphi**, a forecasting method that replaces human experts and mediators with LLMs. We show (i) that providing example superforecaster reasoning traces and predictions helps to elicit more accurate forecasts from LLM experts, (ii) that the mediator plays the crucial role of surfacing different lines of reasoning and points of disagreement, and (iii) that multiple rounds and experts lead to better forecasts, showing that multi-turn interaction is key to DeLLMphi.
The COVID-19 pandemic has spurred an unprecedented demand for interventions that can reduce disease spread without excessively restricting d… (see more)aily activity, given negative impacts on mental health and economic outcomes. Digital contact tracing (DCT) apps have emerged as a component of the epidemic management toolkit. Existing DCT apps typically recommend quarantine to all digitally-recorded contacts of test-confirmed cases. Over-reliance on testing may, however, impede the effectiveness of such apps, since by the time cases are confirmed through testing, onward transmissions are likely to have occurred. Furthermore, most cases are infectious over a short period; only a subset of their contacts are likely to become infected. These apps do not fully utilize data sources to base their predictions of transmission risk during an encounter, leading to recommendations of quarantine to many uninfected people and associated slowdowns in economic activity. This phenomenon, commonly termed as “pingdemic,” may additionally contribute to reduced compliance to public health measures. In this work, we propose a novel DCT framework, Proactive Contact Tracing (PCT), which uses multiple sources of information (e.g. self-reported symptoms, received messages from contacts) to estimate app users’ infectiousness histories and provide behavioral recommendations. PCT methods are by design proactive, predicting spread before it occurs. We present an interpretable instance of this framework, the Rule-based PCT algorithm, designed via a multi-disciplinary collaboration among epidemiologists, computer scientists, and behavior experts. Finally, we develop an agent-based model that allows us to compare different DCT methods and evaluate their performance in negotiating the trade-off between epidemic control and restricting population mobility. Performing extensive sensitivity analysis across user behavior, public health policy, and virological parameters, we compare Rule-based PCT to i) binary contact tracing (BCT), which exclusively relies on test results and recommends a fixed-duration quarantine, and ii) household quarantine (HQ). Our results suggest that both BCT and Rule-based PCT improve upon HQ, however, Rule-based PCT is more efficient at controlling spread of disease than BCT across a range of scenarios. In terms of cost-effectiveness, we show that Rule-based PCT pareto-dominates BCT, as demonstrated by a decrease in Disability Adjusted Life Years, as well as Temporary Productivity Loss. Overall, we find that Rule-based PCT outperforms existing approaches across a varying range of parameters. By leveraging anonymized infectiousness estimates received from digitally-recorded contacts, PCT is able to notify potentially infected users earlier than BCT methods and prevent onward transmissions. Our results suggest that PCT-based applications could be a useful tool in managing future epidemics.
Different types of mental rotation tests have been used extensively in psychology to understand human visual reasoning and perception. Under… (see more)standing what an object or visual scene would look like from another viewpoint is a challenging problem that is made even harder if it must be performed from a single image. We explore a controlled setting whereby questions are posed about the properties of a scene if that scene was observed from another viewpoint. To do this we have created a new version of the CLEVR dataset that we call CLEVR Mental Rotation Tests (CLEVR-MRT). Using CLEVR-MRT we examine standard methods, show how they fall short, then explore novel neural architectures that involve inferring volumetric representations of a scene. These volumes can be manipulated via camera-conditioned transformations to answer the question. We examine the efficacy of different model variants through rigorous ablations and demonstrate the efficacy of volumetric representations.
Robust multi-agent trajectory prediction is essential for the safe control of robotic systems. A major challenge is to efficiently learn a r… (see more)epresentation that approximates the true joint distribution of contextual, social, and temporal information to enable planning. We propose Latent Variable Sequential Set Transformers which are encoder-decoder architectures that generate scene-consistent multi-agent trajectories. We refer to these architectures as "AutoBots". The encoder is a stack of interleaved temporal and social multi-head self-attention (MHSA) modules which alternately perform equivariant processing across the temporal and social dimensions. The decoder employs learnable seed parameters in combination with temporal and social MHSA modules allowing it to perform inference over the entire future scene in a single forward pass efficiently. AutoBots can produce either the trajectory of one ego-agent or a distribution over the future trajectories for all agents in the scene. For the single-agent prediction case, our model achieves top results on the global nuScenes vehicle motion prediction leaderboard, and produces strong results on the Argoverse vehicle prediction challenge. In the multi-agent setting, we evaluate on the synthetic partition of TrajNet++ dataset to showcase the model's socially-consistent predictions. We also demonstrate our model on general sequences of sets and provide illustrative experiments modelling the sequential structure of the multiple strokes that make up symbols in the Omniglot data. A distinguishing feature of AutoBots is that all models are trainable on a single desktop GPU (1080 Ti) in under 48h.
Recent work has seen the development of general purpose neural architectures that can be trained to perform tasks across diverse data modali… (see more)ties. General purpose models typically make few assumptions about the underlying data-structure and are known to perform well in the large-data regime. At the same time, there has been growing interest in modular neural architectures that represent the data using sparsely interacting modules. These models can be more robust out-of-distribution, computationally efficient, and capable of sample-efficient adaptation to new data. However, they tend to make domain-specific assumptions about the data, and present challenges in how module behavior (i.e., parameterization) and connectivity (i.e., their layout) can be jointly learned. In this work, we introduce a general purpose, yet modular neural architecture called Neural Attentive Circuits (NACs) that jointly learns the parameterization and a sparse connectivity of neural modules without using domain knowledge. NACs are best understood as the combination of two systems that are jointly trained end-to-end: one that determines the module configuration and the other that executes it on an input. We demonstrate qualitatively that NACs learn diverse and meaningful module configurations on the NLVR2 dataset without additional supervision. Quantitatively, we show that by incorporating modularity in this way, NACs improve upon a strong non-modular baseline in terms of low-shot adaptation on CIFAR and CUBs dataset by about 10%, and OOD robustness on Tiny ImageNet-R by about 2.5%. Further, we find that NACs can achieve an 8x speedup at inference time while losing less than 3% performance. Finally, we find NACs to yield competitive results on diverse data modalities spanning point-cloud classification, symbolic processing and text-classification from ASCII bytes, thereby confirming its general purpose nature.
2021-12-31
Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 35 (NeurIPS 2022) (published)
The COVID-19 pandemic has spread rapidly worldwide, overwhelming manual contact tracing in many countries and resulting in widespread lockdo… (see more)wns for emergency containment. Large-scale digital contact tracing (DCT) has emerged as a potential solution to resume economic and social activity while minimizing spread of the virus. Various DCT methods have been proposed, each making trade-offs between privacy, mobility restrictions, and public health. The most common approach, binary contact tracing (BCT), models infection as a binary event, informed only by an individual's test results, with corresponding binary recommendations that either all or none of the individual's contacts quarantine. BCT ignores the inherent uncertainty in contacts and the infection process, which could be used to tailor messaging to high-risk individuals, and prompt proactive testing or earlier warnings. It also does not make use of observations such as symptoms or pre-existing medical conditions, which could be used to make more accurate infectiousness predictions. In this paper, we use a recently-proposed COVID-19 epidemiological simulator to develop and test methods that can be deployed to a smartphone to locally and proactively predict an individual's infectiousness (risk of infecting others) based on their contact history and other information, while respecting strong privacy constraints. Predictions are used to provide personalized recommendations to the individual via an app, as well as to send anonymized messages to the individual's contacts, who use this information to better predict their own infectiousness, an approach we call proactive contact tracing (PCT). We find a deep-learning based PCT method which improves over BCT for equivalent average mobility, suggesting PCT could help in safe re-opening and second-wave prevention.
The rapid global spread of COVID-19 has led to an unprecedented demand for effective methods to mitigate the spread of the disease, and vari… (see more)ous digital contact tracing (DCT) methods have emerged as a component of the solution. In order to make informed public health choices, there is a need for tools which allow evaluation and comparison of DCT methods. We introduce an agent-based compartmental simulator we call COVI-AgentSim, integrating detailed consideration of virology, disease progression, social contact networks, and mobility patterns, based on parameters derived from empirical research. We verify by comparing to real data that COVI-AgentSim is able to reproduce realistic COVID-19 spread dynamics, and perform a sensitivity analysis to verify that the relative performance of contact tracing methods are consistent across a range of settings. We use COVI-AgentSim to perform cost-benefit analyses comparing no DCT to: 1) standard binary contact tracing (BCT) that assigns binary recommendations based on binary test results; and 2) a rule-based method for feature-based contact tracing (FCT) that assigns a graded level of recommendation based on diverse individual features. We find all DCT methods consistently reduce the spread of the disease, and that the advantage of FCT over BCT is maintained over a wide range of adoption rates. Feature-based methods of contact tracing avert more disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) per socioeconomic cost (measured by productive hours lost). Our results suggest any DCT method can help save lives, support re-opening of economies, and prevent second-wave outbreaks, and that FCT methods are a promising direction for enriching BCT using self-reported symptoms, yielding earlier warning signals and a significantly reduced spread of the virus per socioeconomic cost.
Millions of blind and visually-impaired (BVI) people navigate urban environments every day, using smartphones for high-level path-planning a… (see more)nd white canes or guide dogs for local information. However, many BVI people still struggle to travel to new places. In our endeavor to create a navigation assistant for the BVI, we found that existing Reinforcement Learning (RL) environments were unsuitable for the task. This work introduces SEVN, a sidewalk simulation environment and a neural network-based approach to creating a navigation agent. SEVN contains panoramic images with labels for house numbers, doors, and street name signs, and formulations for several navigation tasks. We study the performance of an RL algorithm (PPO) in this setting. Our policy model fuses multi-modal observations in the form of variable resolution images, visible text, and simulated GPS data to navigate to a goal door. We hope that this dataset, simulator, and experimental results will provide a foundation for further research into the creation of agents that can assist members of the BVI community with outdoor navigation.
2020-05-11
Proceedings of the Conference on Robot Learning (published)
