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Publications
Magnetoencephalography resting-state correlates of executive and language components of verbal fluency
The intrinsic functional organization of the brain changes into older adulthood. Age differences are observed at multiple spatial scales, fr… (voir plus)om global reductions in modularity and segregation of distributed brain systems, to network-specific patterns of dedifferentiation. Whether dedifferentiation reflects an inevitable, global shift in brain function with age, circumscribed, experience dependent changes, or both, is uncertain. We employed a multi-method strategy to interrogate dedifferentiation at multiple spatial scales. Multi-echo (ME) resting-state fMRI was collected in younger (n=181) and older (n=120) healthy adults. Cortical parcellation sensitive to individual variation was implemented for precision functional mapping of each participant, while preserving group-level parcel and network labels. ME-fMRI processing and gradient mapping identified global and macroscale network differences. Multivariate functional connectivity methods tested for microscale, edge-level differences. Older adults had lower BOLD signal dimensionality, consistent with global network dedifferentiation. Gradients were largely age-invariant. Edge-level analyses revealed discrete, network-specific dedifferentiation patterns in older adults. Visual and somatosensory regions were more integrated within the functional connectome; default and frontoparietal control network regions showed greater connectivity; and the dorsal attention network was more integrated with heteromodal regions. These findings highlight the importance of multi-scale, multi-method approaches to characterize the architecture of functional brain aging.
Estimating value functions is a core component of reinforcement learning algorithms. Temporal difference (TD) learning algorithms use bootst… (voir plus)rapping, i.e. they update the value function toward a learning target using value estimates at subsequent time-steps. Alternatively, the value function can be updated toward a learning target constructed by separately predicting successor features (SF)—a policy-dependent model—and linearly combining them with instantaneous rewards.
We focus on bootstrapping targets used when estimating value functions, and propose a new backup target, the ?-return mixture, which implicitly combines value-predictive knowledge (used by TD methods) with (successor) feature-predictive knowledge—with a parameter ? capturing how much to rely on each. We illustrate that incorporating predictive knowledge through an ??-discounted SF model makes more efficient use of sampled experience, compared to either extreme, i.e. bootstrapping entirely on the value function estimate, or bootstrapping on the product of separately estimated successor features and instantaneous reward models. We empirically show this approach leads to faster policy evaluation and better control performance, for tabular and nonlinear function approximations, indicating scalability and generality.
BACKGROUND
Robust and flexible infectious disease surveillance is crucial for public health. Event-based surveillance (EBS) was developed t… (voir plus)o allow timely detection of infectious disease outbreaks using mostly web-based data. Despite its widespread use, EBS has not been evaluated systematically on a global scale in terms of outbreak detection performance.
OBJECTIVE
To assess the variation in timing and frequency of EBS reports compared to true outbreaks and to identify the determinants of variability, using the example of seasonal influenza epidemics in 24 countries.
METHODS
We obtained influenza-related reports from two EBS systems, HealthMap and the WHO Epidemic Intelligence from Open Sources (EIOS), and weekly virologic influenza counts from FluNet as a gold standard. Epidemic influenza periods were detected based on report frequency using Bayesian change point analysis. Timely sensitivity, i.e., outbreak detection within the first two weeks before or after an outbreak onset, was calculated along with sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and timeliness of detection. Linear regressions were performed to assess the influence of country-specific factors on EBS performance.
RESULTS
Overall, monitoring the frequency of EBS reports detected 73.5% of outbreaks, but only 9.2% within two weeks of onset; in the best case, monitoring the frequency of health-related reports identified 29% of outbreaks within two weeks of onset. We observed a large degree of variability in all evaluation metrics across countries. The number of EBS reports available within a country, the human development index, and the country’s geographical location partially explained this variability.
CONCLUSIONS
Monitoring the frequency of EBS reports allowed just under 10% of seasonal influenza outbreaks to be detected in a timely manner in a worldwide analysis, with a large variability in detection capabilities. This article documents the global variation of EBS performance and demonstrates that monitoring report frequency alone in EBS may be insufficient for timely detection of outbreaks. Moreover, factors such as human development index and geographical location of a country may influence the performance of EBS and should be considered in future evaluations.
BACKGROUND
Robust and flexible infectious disease surveillance is crucial for public health. Event-based surveillance (EBS) was developed t… (voir plus)o allow timely detection of infectious disease outbreaks using mostly web-based data. Despite its widespread use, EBS has not been evaluated systematically on a global scale in terms of outbreak detection performance.
OBJECTIVE
To assess the variation in timing and frequency of EBS reports compared to true outbreaks and to identify the determinants of variability, using the example of seasonal influenza epidemics in 24 countries.
METHODS
We obtained influenza-related reports from two EBS systems, HealthMap and the WHO Epidemic Intelligence from Open Sources (EIOS), and weekly virologic influenza counts from FluNet as a gold standard. Epidemic influenza periods were detected based on report frequency using Bayesian change point analysis. Timely sensitivity, i.e., outbreak detection within the first two weeks before or after an outbreak onset, was calculated along with sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and timeliness of detection. Linear regressions were performed to assess the influence of country-specific factors on EBS performance.
RESULTS
Overall, monitoring the frequency of EBS reports detected 73.5% of outbreaks, but only 9.2% within two weeks of onset; in the best case, monitoring the frequency of health-related reports identified 29% of outbreaks within two weeks of onset. We observed a large degree of variability in all evaluation metrics across countries. The number of EBS reports available within a country, the human development index, and the country’s geographical location partially explained this variability.
CONCLUSIONS
Monitoring the frequency of EBS reports allowed just under 10% of seasonal influenza outbreaks to be detected in a timely manner in a worldwide analysis, with a large variability in detection capabilities. This article documents the global variation of EBS performance and demonstrates that monitoring report frequency alone in EBS may be insufficient for timely detection of outbreaks. Moreover, factors such as human development index and geographical location of a country may influence the performance of EBS and should be considered in future evaluations.
Background Robust and flexible infectious disease surveillance is crucial for public health. Event-based surveillance (EBS) was developed to… (voir plus) allow timely detection of infectious disease outbreaks by using mostly web-based data. Despite its widespread use, EBS has not been evaluated systematically on a global scale in terms of outbreak detection performance. Objective The aim of this study was to assess the variation in the timing and frequency of EBS reports compared to true outbreaks and to identify the determinants of variability by using the example of seasonal influenza epidemic in 24 countries. Methods We obtained influenza-related reports between January 2013 and December 2019 from 2 EBS systems, that is, HealthMap and the World Health Organization Epidemic Intelligence from Open Sources (EIOS), and weekly virological influenza counts for the same period from FluNet as the gold standard. Influenza epidemic periods were detected based on report frequency by using Bayesian change point analysis. Timely sensitivity, that is, outbreak detection within the first 2 weeks before or after an outbreak onset was calculated along with sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and timeliness of detection. Linear regressions were performed to assess the influence of country-specific factors on EBS performance. Results Overall, while monitoring the frequency of EBS reports over 7 years in 24 countries, we detected 175 out of 238 outbreaks (73.5%) but only 22 out of 238 (9.2%) within 2 weeks before or after an outbreak onset; in the best case, while monitoring the frequency of health-related reports, we identified 2 out of 6 outbreaks (33%) within 2 weeks of onset. The positive predictive value varied between 9% and 100% for HealthMap and from 0 to 100% for EIOS, and timeliness of detection ranged from 13% to 94% for HealthMap and from 0% to 92% for EIOS, whereas system specificity was generally high (59%-100%). The number of EBS reports available within a country, the human development index, and the country’s geographical location partially explained the high variability in system performance across countries. Conclusions We documented the global variation of EBS performance and demonstrated that monitoring the report frequency alone in EBS may be insufficient for the timely detection of outbreaks. In particular, in low- and middle-income countries, low data quality and report frequency impair the sensitivity and timeliness of disease surveillance through EBS. Therefore, advances in the development and evaluation and EBS are needed, particularly in low-resource settings.