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This paper offers a methodological contribution at the intersection of machine learning and operations research. Namely, we propose a method… (voir plus)ology to quickly predict tactical solutions to a given operational problem. In this context, the tactical solution is less detailed than the operational one but it has to be computed in very short time and under imperfect information. The problem is of importance in various applications where tactical and operational planning problems are interrelated and information about the operational problem is revealed over time. This is for instance the case in certain capacity planning and demand management systems. We formulate the problem as a two-stage optimal prediction stochastic program whose solution we predict with a supervised machine learning algorithm. The training data set consists of a large number of deterministic (second stage) problems generated by controlled probabilistic sampling. The labels are computed based on solutions to the deterministic problems (solved independently and offline) employing appropriate aggregation and subselection methods to address uncertainty. Results on our motivating application in load planning for rail transportation show that deep learning algorithms produce highly accurate predictions in very short computing time (milliseconds or less). The prediction accuracy is comparable to solutions computed by sample average approximation of the stochastic program.
Learning a causal directed acyclic graph from data is a challenging task that involves solving a combinatorial problem for which the solutio… (voir plus)n is not always identifiable. A new line of work reformulates this problem as a continuous constrained optimization one, which is solved via the augmented Lagrangian method. However, most methods based on this idea do not make use of interventional data, which can significantly alleviate identifiability issues. This work constitutes a new step in this direction by proposing a theoretically-grounded method based on neural networks that can leverage interventional data. We illustrate the flexibility of the continuous-constrained framework by taking advantage of expressive neural architectures such as normalizing flows. We show that our approach compares favorably to the state of the art in a variety of settings, including perfect and imperfect interventions for which the targeted nodes may even be unknown.
2020-12-06
Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (Accept (poster))
We propose to meta-learn causal structures based on how fast a learner adapts to new distributions arising from sparse distributional change… (voir plus)s, e.g. due to interventions, actions of agents and other sources of non-stationarities. We show that under this assumption, the correct causal structural choices lead to faster adaptation to modified distributions because the changes are concentrated in one or just a few mechanisms when the learned knowledge is modularized appropriately. This leads to sparse expected gradients and a lower effective number of degrees of freedom needing to be relearned while adapting to the change. It motivates using the speed of adaptation to a modified distribution as a meta-learning objective. We demonstrate how this can be used to determine the cause-effect relationship between two observed variables. The distributional changes do not need to correspond to standard interventions (clamping a variable), and the learner has no direct knowledge of these interventions. We show that causal structures can be parameterized via continuous variables and learned end-to-end. We then explore how these ideas could be used to also learn an encoder that would map low-level observed variables to unobserved causal variables leading to faster adaptation out-of-distribution, learning a representation space where one can satisfy the assumptions of independent mechanisms and of small and sparse changes in these mechanisms due to actions and non-stationarities.
Decision making based on statistical association alone can be a dangerous endeavor due to non-causal associations. Ideally, one would rely o… (voir plus)n causal relationships that enable reasoning about the effect of interventions. Several methods have been proposed to discover such relationships from observational and inter-ventional data. Among them, GraN-DAG, a method that relies on the constrained optimization of neural networks, was shown to produce state-of-the-art results among algorithms relying purely on observational data. However, it is limited to observational data and cannot make use of interventions. In this work, we extend GraN-DAG to support interventional data and show that this improves its ability to infer causal structures