Publications

Beyond Na\"ive Prompting: Strategies for Improved Zero-shot Context-aided Forecasting with LLMs
Andrew Robert Williams
Vincent Zhihao Zheng
Étienne Marcotte
Valentina Zantedeschi
Forecasting in real-world settings requires models to integrate not only historical data but also relevant contextual information, often ava… (voir plus)ilable in textual form. While recent work has shown that large language models (LLMs) can be effective context-aided forecasters via na\"ive direct prompting, their full potential remains underexplored. We address this gap with 4 strategies, providing new insights into the zero-shot capabilities of LLMs in this setting. ReDP improves interpretability by eliciting explicit reasoning traces, allowing us to assess the model's reasoning over the context independently from its forecast accuracy. CorDP leverages LLMs solely to refine existing forecasts with context, enhancing their applicability in real-world forecasting pipelines. IC-DP proposes embedding historical examples of context-aided forecasting tasks in the prompt, substantially improving accuracy even for the largest models. Finally, RouteDP optimizes resource efficiency by using LLMs to estimate task difficulty, and routing the most challenging tasks to larger models. Evaluated on different kinds of context-aided forecasting tasks from the CiK benchmark, our strategies demonstrate distinct benefits over na\"ive prompting across LLMs of different sizes and families. These results open the door to further simple yet effective improvements in LLM-based context-aided forecasting.
Discovery of Sustainable Refrigerants through Physics-Informed RL Fine-Tuning of Sequence Models
Most refrigerants currently used in air-conditioning systems, such as hydrofluorocarbons, are potent greenhouse gases and are being phased d… (voir plus)own. Large-scale molecular screening has been applied to the search for alternatives, but in practice only about 300 refrigerants are known, and only a few additional candidates have been suggested without experimental validation. This scarcity of reliable data limits the effectiveness of purely data-driven methods. We present Refgen, a generative pipeline that integrates machine learning with physics-grounded inductive biases. Alongside fine-tuning for valid molecular generation, Refgen incorporates predictive models for critical properties, equations of state, thermochemical polynomials, and full vapor compression cycle simulations. These models enable reinforcement learning fine-tuning under thermodynamic constraints, enforcing consistency and guiding discovery toward molecules that balance efficiency, safety, and environmental impact. By embedding physics into the learning process, Refgen leverages scarce data effectively and enables de novo refrigerant discovery beyond the known set of compounds.
Discovery of Sustainable Refrigerants through Physics-Informed RL Fine-Tuning of Sequence Models
Most refrigerants currently used in air-conditioning systems, such as hydrofluorocarbons, are potent greenhouse gases and are being phased d… (voir plus)own. Large-scale molecular screening has been applied to the search for alternatives, but in practice only about 300 refrigerants are known, and only a few additional candidates have been suggested without experimental validation. This scarcity of reliable data limits the effectiveness of purely data-driven methods. We present Refgen, a generative pipeline that integrates machine learning with physics-grounded inductive biases. Alongside fine-tuning for valid molecular generation, Refgen incorporates predictive models for critical properties, equations of state, thermochemical polynomials, and full vapor compression cycle simulations. These models enable reinforcement learning fine-tuning under thermodynamic constraints, enforcing consistency and guiding discovery toward molecules that balance efficiency, safety, and environmental impact. By embedding physics into the learning process, Refgen leverages scarce data effectively and enables de novo refrigerant discovery beyond the known set of compounds.
FEval-TTC: Fair Evaluation Protocol for Test-Time Compute
Pavel Rumiantsev
Soumyasundar Pal
Yingxue Zhang
The performance of Large Language Models (LLMs) and the associated dollar costs of API calls can fluctuate over time, potentially invalidati… (voir plus)ng conclusions drawn in prior research. To address this, we propose a _**F**air **Eval**uation protocol for **T**est-**T**ime **C**ompute_ (FEval-TTC), designed to ensure consistent assessment of test-time compute (TTC) methods, regardless of such fluctuations. FEval-TTC focuses on evaluation of TTC methods that utilize underlying Chains-of-Thought (CoT). It supports evaluations across multiple LLMs on a diverse set of mathematical and commonsense reasoning datasets. The few-shot prompting and answer extraction processes are standardized across datasets, reducing both time and monetary overhead for researchers. Furthermore, we provide a cost modeling procedure that estimates both the token and dollar cost per query, facilitating equitable comparisons of prevalent TTC methods. We open-source FEval-TTC for public use at [anonymized code link](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DUeteFA7lnx5MubuR0lh6OPN6XKfpqGC/view?usp=sharing).
FEval-TTC: Fair Evaluation Protocol for Test-Time Compute
Pavel Rumiantsev
Soumyasundar Pal
Yingxue Zhang
The performance of Large Language Models (LLMs) and the associated dollar costs of API calls can fluctuate over time, potentially invalidati… (voir plus)ng conclusions drawn in prior research. To address this, we propose a _**F**air **Eval**uation protocol for **T**est-**T**ime **C**ompute_ (FEval-TTC), designed to ensure consistent assessment of test-time compute (TTC) methods, regardless of such fluctuations. FEval-TTC focuses on evaluation of TTC methods that utilize underlying Chains-of-Thought (CoT). It supports evaluations across multiple LLMs on a diverse set of mathematical and commonsense reasoning datasets. The few-shot prompting and answer extraction processes are standardized across datasets, reducing both time and monetary overhead for researchers. Furthermore, we provide a cost modeling procedure that estimates both the token and dollar cost per query, facilitating equitable comparisons of prevalent TTC methods. We open-source FEval-TTC for public use at [anonymized code link](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DUeteFA7lnx5MubuR0lh6OPN6XKfpqGC/view?usp=sharing).
How to Get Your LLM to Generate Challenging Problems for Evaluation
The pace of evolution of Large Language Models (LLMs) necessitates new approaches for rigorous and comprehensive evaluation. Traditional hum… (voir plus)an annotation is increasingly impracticable due to the complexities and costs involved in generating high-quality, challenging problems. In this work, we introduce **CHASE**, a framework to synthetically generate challenging problems using LLMs without human involvement. For a given task, our approach builds a difficult problem in a bottom-up manner from simpler components in a verifiable way. We implement CHASE to create evaluation benchmarks across three diverse domains on which state-of-the-art LLMs demonstrate severe vulnerabilities.
How to Get Your LLM to Generate Challenging Problems for Evaluation
The pace of evolution of Large Language Models (LLMs) necessitates new approaches for rigorous and comprehensive evaluation. Traditional hum… (voir plus)an annotation is increasingly impracticable due to the complexities and costs involved in generating high-quality, challenging problems, particularly for tasks such as long-context reasoning. Moreover, the rapid saturation of existing human-curated benchmarks by LLMs further necessitates the need to develop scalable and automatically renewable evaluation methodologies. In this work, we introduce **CHASE**, a unified framework to synthetically generate challenging problems using LLMs without human involvement. For a given task, our approach builds a hard problem in a bottom-up manner from simpler components. Moreover since we want to generate synthetic data for evaluation, our framework decomposes the generation process into independently verifiable sub-tasks, thereby ensuring a high level of quality and correctness. We implement CHASE to create evaluation benchmarks across three diverse domains: document-based question answering, repository-level code completion, and math reasoning. The performance of state-of-the-art LLMs on these synthetic benchmarks lies in the range of 40-60\% accuracy, thereby demonstrating the effectiveness of our framework at generating hard problems. Our experiments further reveal that the Gemini models significantly outperform other LLMs at long-context reasoning, and that the performance of all LLMs drastically drops by as much as 70\% when we scale up the context size to 50k tokens.
PipelineRL: Faster On-policy Reinforcement Learning for Long Sequence Generation
Ehsan Kamalloo
Rafael Pardinas
Reinforcement Learning (RL) is increasingly utilized to enhance the reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, effecti… (voir plus)vely scaling these RL methods presents significant challenges, primarily due to the difficulty in maintaining high AI accelerator utilization without generating stale, off-policy data that harms common RL algorithms. This paper introduces PipelineRL, an approach designed to achieve a superior trade-off between hardware efficiency and data on-policyness for LLM training. PipelineRL employs concurrent asynchronous data generation and model training, distinguished by the novel in-flight weight updates. This mechanism allows the LLM generation engine to receive updated model weights with minimal interruption during the generation of token sequences, thereby maximizing both the accelerator utilization and the freshness of training data. Experiments conducted on long-form reasoning tasks using 128 H100 GPUs demonstrate that PipelineRL achieves approximately
PipelineRL: Faster On-policy Reinforcement Learning for Long Sequence Generation
Ehsan Kamalloo
Rafael Pardinas
Reinforcement Learning (RL) is increasingly utilized to enhance the reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, effecti… (voir plus)vely scaling these RL methods presents significant challenges, primarily due to the difficulty in maintaining high AI accelerator utilization without generating stale, off-policy data that harms common RL algorithms. This paper introduces PipelineRL, an approach designed to achieve a superior trade-off between hardware efficiency and data on-policyness for LLM training. PipelineRL employs concurrent asynchronous data generation and model training, distinguished by the novel in-flight weight updates. This mechanism allows the LLM generation engine to receive updated model weights with minimal interruption during the generation of token sequences, thereby maximizing both the accelerator utilization and the freshness of training data. Experiments conducted on long-form reasoning tasks using 128 H100 GPUs demonstrate that PipelineRL achieves approximately
Taxonomy, Opportunities, and Challenges of Representation Engineering for Large Language Models
Jan Wehner
Sahar Abdelnabi
Daniel Chee Hian Tan
Mario Fritz
Representation Engineering (RepE) is a novel paradigm for controlling the behavior of LLMs. Unlike traditional approaches that modify inputs… (voir plus) or fine-tune the model, RepE directly manipulates the model's internal representations. As a result, it may offer more effective, interpretable, data-efficient, and flexible control over models' behavior. We present the first comprehensive survey of RepE for LLMs, reviewing the rapidly growing literature to address key questions: What RepE methods exist and how do they differ? For what concepts and problems has RepE been applied? What are the strengths and weaknesses of RepE compared to other methods? To answer these, we propose a unified framework describing RepE as a pipeline comprising representation identification, operationalization, and control. We posit that while RepE methods offer significant potential, challenges remain, including managing multiple concepts, ensuring reliability, and preserving models' performance. Towards improving RepE, we identify opportunities for experimental and methodological improvements and construct a guide for best practices.
Taxonomy, Opportunities, and Challenges of Representation Engineering for Large Language Models
Jan Wehner
Sahar Abdelnabi
Daniel Tan
Mario Fritz
Representation Engineering (RepE) is a novel paradigm for controlling the behavior of LLMs. Unlike traditional approaches that modify inputs… (voir plus) or fine-tune the model, RepE directly manipulates the model's internal representations. As a result, it may offer more effective, interpretable, data-efficient, and flexible control over models' behavior. We present the first comprehensive survey of RepE for LLMs, reviewing the rapidly growing literature to address key questions: What RepE methods exist and how do they differ? For what concepts and problems has RepE been applied? What are the strengths and weaknesses of RepE compared to other methods? To answer these, we propose a unified framework describing RepE as a pipeline comprising representation identification, operationalization, and control. We posit that while RepE methods offer significant potential, challenges remain, including managing multiple concepts, ensuring reliability, and preserving models' performance. Towards improving RepE, we identify opportunities for experimental and methodological improvements and construct a guide for best practices.
Taxonomy, Opportunities, and Challenges of Representation Engineering for Large Language Models
Jan Wehner
Sahar Abdelnabi
Daniel Chee Hian Tan
Mario Fritz
Representation Engineering (RepE) is a novel paradigm for controlling the behavior of LLMs. Unlike traditional approaches that modify inputs… (voir plus) or fine-tune the model, RepE directly manipulates the model's internal representations. As a result, it may offer more effective, interpretable, data-efficient, and flexible control over models' behavior. We present the first comprehensive survey of RepE for LLMs, reviewing the rapidly growing literature to address key questions: What RepE methods exist and how do they differ? For what concepts and problems has RepE been applied? What are the strengths and weaknesses of RepE compared to other methods? To answer these, we propose a unified framework describing RepE as a pipeline comprising representation identification, operationalization, and control. We posit that while RepE methods offer significant potential, challenges remain, including managing multiple concepts, ensuring reliability, and preserving models' performance. Towards improving RepE, we identify opportunities for experimental and methodological improvements and construct a guide for best practices.