Tegan Maharaj

Nasim Rahaman

Hannah Alsdurf

Nanor Minoyan

Soren Harnois-Leblanc

Joanna Merckx

Andrew Robert Williams

Akshay Patel

Yang Zhang

David Buckeridge

Bernhard Schölkopf

2023-03-13

PLOS Digital Health (publié)

Proactive Contact Tracing

Prateek Gupta

Nasim Rahaman

Hannah Alsdurf

Nanor Minoyan

Soren Harnois-Leblanc

Joanna Merckx

Andrew Williams

Akshay Patel

Yang Zhang

David Buckeridge

Bernhard Schölkopf

The COVID-19 pandemic has spurred an unprecedented demand for interventions that can reduce disease spread without excessively restricting d… (voir plus)aily activity, given negative impacts on mental health and economic outcomes. Digital contact tracing (DCT) apps have emerged as a component of the epidemic management toolkit. Existing DCT apps typically recommend quarantine to all digitally-recorded contacts of test-confirmed cases. Over-reliance on testing may, however, impede the effectiveness of such apps, since by the time cases are confirmed through testing, onward transmissions are likely to have occurred. Furthermore, most cases are infectious over a short period; only a subset of their contacts are likely to become infected. These apps do not fully utilize data sources to base their predictions of transmission risk during an encounter, leading to recommendations of quarantine to many uninfected people and associated slowdowns in economic activity. This phenomenon, commonly termed as “pingdemic,” may additionally contribute to reduced compliance to public health measures. In this work, we propose a novel DCT framework, Proactive Contact Tracing (PCT), which uses multiple sources of information (e.g. self-reported symptoms, received messages from contacts) to estimate app users’ infectiousness histories and provide behavioral recommendations. PCT methods are by design proactive, predicting spread before it occurs. We present an interpretable instance of this framework, the Rule-based PCT algorithm, designed via a multi-disciplinary collaboration among epidemiologists, computer scientists, and behavior experts. Finally, we develop an agent-based model that allows us to compare different DCT methods and evaluate their performance in negotiating the trade-off between epidemic control and restricting population mobility. Performing extensive sensitivity analysis across user behavior, public health policy, and virological parameters, we compare Rule-based PCT to i) binary contact tracing (BCT), which exclusively relies on test results and recommends a fixed-duration quarantine, and ii) household quarantine (HQ). Our results suggest that both BCT and Rule-based PCT improve upon HQ, however, Rule-based PCT is more efficient at controlling spread of disease than BCT across a range of scenarios. In terms of cost-effectiveness, we show that Rule-based PCT pareto-dominates BCT, as demonstrated by a decrease in Disability Adjusted Life Years, as well as Temporary Productivity Loss. Overall, we find that Rule-based PCT outperforms existing approaches across a varying range of parameters. By leveraging anonymized infectiousness estimates received from digitally-recorded contacts, PCT is able to notify potentially infected users earlier than BCT methods and prevent onward transmissions. Our results suggest that PCT-based applications could be a useful tool in managing future epidemics.

2023-03-01

PLOS Digital Health (publié)

Proactive Contact Tracing

Prateek Gupta

Nasim Rahaman

Hannah Alsdurf

Nanor Minoyan

Soren Harnois-Leblanc

Joanna Merckx

Andrew Williams

Akshay Patel

Yang Zhang

David L Buckeridge

Bernhard Schölkopf

The COVID-19 pandemic has spurred an unprecedented demand for interventions that can reduce disease spread without excessively restricting d… (voir plus)aily activity, given negative impacts on mental health and economic outcomes. Digital contact tracing (DCT) apps have emerged as a component of the epidemic management toolkit. Existing DCT apps typically recommend quarantine to all digitally-recorded contacts of test-confirmed cases. Over-reliance on testing may, however, impede the effectiveness of such apps, since by the time cases are confirmed through testing, onward transmissions are likely to have occurred. Furthermore, most cases are infectious over a short period; only a subset of their contacts are likely to become infected. These apps do not fully utilize data sources to base their predictions of transmission risk during an encounter, leading to recommendations of quarantine to many uninfected people and associated slowdowns in economic activity. This phenomenon, commonly termed as “pingdemic,” may additionally contribute to reduced compliance to public health measures. In this work, we propose a novel DCT framework, Proactive Contact Tracing (PCT), which uses multiple sources of information (e.g. self-reported symptoms, received messages from contacts) to estimate app users’ infectiousness histories and provide behavioral recommendations. PCT methods are by design proactive, predicting spread before it occurs. We present an interpretable instance of this framework, the Rule-based PCT algorithm, designed via a multi-disciplinary collaboration among epidemiologists, computer scientists, and behavior experts. Finally, we develop an agent-based model that allows us to compare different DCT methods and evaluate their performance in negotiating the trade-off between epidemic control and restricting population mobility. Performing extensive sensitivity analysis across user behavior, public health policy, and virological parameters, we compare Rule-based PCT to i) binary contact tracing (BCT), which exclusively relies on test results and recommends a fixed-duration quarantine, and ii) household quarantine (HQ). Our results suggest that both BCT and Rule-based PCT improve upon HQ, however, Rule-based PCT is more efficient at controlling spread of disease than BCT across a range of scenarios. In terms of cost-effectiveness, we show that Rule-based PCT pareto-dominates BCT, as demonstrated by a decrease in Disability Adjusted Life Years, as well as Temporary Productivity Loss. Overall, we find that Rule-based PCT outperforms existing approaches across a varying range of parameters. By leveraging anonymized infectiousness estimates received from digitally-recorded contacts, PCT is able to notify potentially infected users earlier than BCT methods and prevent onward transmissions. Our results suggest that PCT-based applications could be a useful tool in managing future epidemics.

2023-03-01

PLOS Digital Health (publié)

Proactive Contact Tracing

Prateek Gupta

Nasim Rahaman

Hannah Alsdurf

Nanor Minoyan

Soren Harnois-Leblanc

Joanna Merckx

Andrew Williams

Akshay Patel

Yang Zhang

David L Buckeridge

Bernhard Schölkopf

The COVID-19 pandemic has spurred an unprecedented demand for interventions that can reduce disease spread without excessively restricting d… (voir plus)aily activity, given negative impacts on mental health and economic outcomes. Digital contact tracing (DCT) apps have emerged as a component of the epidemic management toolkit. Existing DCT apps typically recommend quarantine to all digitally-recorded contacts of test-confirmed cases. Over-reliance on testing may, however, impede the effectiveness of such apps, since by the time cases are confirmed through testing, onward transmissions are likely to have occurred. Furthermore, most cases are infectious over a short period; only a subset of their contacts are likely to become infected. These apps do not fully utilize data sources to base their predictions of transmission risk during an encounter, leading to recommendations of quarantine to many uninfected people and associated slowdowns in economic activity. This phenomenon, commonly termed as “pingdemic,” may additionally contribute to reduced compliance to public health measures. In this work, we propose a novel DCT framework, Proactive Contact Tracing (PCT), which uses multiple sources of information (e.g. self-reported symptoms, received messages from contacts) to estimate app users’ infectiousness histories and provide behavioral recommendations. PCT methods are by design proactive, predicting spread before it occurs. We present an interpretable instance of this framework, the Rule-based PCT algorithm, designed via a multi-disciplinary collaboration among epidemiologists, computer scientists, and behavior experts. Finally, we develop an agent-based model that allows us to compare different DCT methods and evaluate their performance in negotiating the trade-off between epidemic control and restricting population mobility. Performing extensive sensitivity analysis across user behavior, public health policy, and virological parameters, we compare Rule-based PCT to i) binary contact tracing (BCT), which exclusively relies on test results and recommends a fixed-duration quarantine, and ii) household quarantine (HQ). Our results suggest that both BCT and Rule-based PCT improve upon HQ, however, Rule-based PCT is more efficient at controlling spread of disease than BCT across a range of scenarios. In terms of cost-effectiveness, we show that Rule-based PCT pareto-dominates BCT, as demonstrated by a decrease in Disability Adjusted Life Years, as well as Temporary Productivity Loss. Overall, we find that Rule-based PCT outperforms existing approaches across a varying range of parameters. By leveraging anonymized infectiousness estimates received from digitally-recorded contacts, PCT is able to notify potentially infected users earlier than BCT methods and prevent onward transmissions. Our results suggest that PCT-based applications could be a useful tool in managing future epidemics.

2023-03-01

PLOS Digital Health (publié)

Factors Influencing Generalization in Chaotic Dynamical Systems

Luã Streit

Vikram Voleti

Many real-world systems exhibit chaotic behaviour, for example: weather, fluid dynamics, stock markets, natural ecosystems, and disease tran… (voir plus)smission. While chaotic systems are often thought to be completely unpredictable, in fact there are patterns within and across that experts frequently describe and contrast qualitatively. We hypothesize that given the right supervision / task definition, representation learning systems will be able to pick up on these patterns, and successfully generalize both in- and out-of-distribution (OOD). Thus, this work explores and identifies key factors which lead to good generalization. We observe a variety of interesting phenomena, including: learned representations transfer much better when fine-tuned vs. frozen; forecasting appears to be the best pre-training task; OOD robustness falls off very quickly outside the training distribution; recurrent architectures generally outperform others on OOD generalization. Our findings are of interest to any domain of prediction where chaotic dynamics play a role.

2023-02-01

ICLR.cc/2023/Conference (rejected)

openreview.net

Metadata Archaeology: Unearthing Data Subsets by Leveraging Training Dynamics

Shoaib Ahmed Siddiqui

Nitarshan Rajkumar

David Scott Krueger

Sara Hooker

Modern machine learning research relies on relatively few carefully curated datasets. Even in these datasets, and typically in `untidy' or r… (voir plus)aw data, practitioners are faced with significant issues of data quality and diversity which can be prohibitively labor intensive to address. Existing methods for dealing with these challenges tend to make strong assumptions about the particular issues at play, and often require a priori knowledge or metadata such as domain labels. Our work is orthogonal to these methods: we instead focus on providing a unified and efficient framework for Metadata Archaeology -- uncovering and inferring metadata of examples in a dataset. We curate different subsets of data that might exist in a dataset (e.g. mislabeled, atypical, or out-of-distribution examples) using simple transformations, and leverage differences in learning dynamics between these probe suites to infer metadata of interest. Our method is on par with far more sophisticated mitigation methods across different tasks: identifying and correcting mislabeled examples, classifying minority-group samples, prioritizing points relevant for training and enabling scalable human auditing of relevant examples.

2023-02-01

ICLR.cc/2023/Conference (notable)

openreview.net

Noisy Pairing and Partial Supervision for Stylized Opinion Summarization

Reinald Kim

Mirella Lapata. 2020

Un-611

Maxinder S. Kan-620

Somnath Basu

Roy Chowdhury

Chao Zhao

Tanya Goyal

Junyi Jiacheng Xu

Jessy Li

Ivor W. Tsang

James T. Kwok

Neil Houlsby

Andrei Giurgiu

Stanisław Jastrzębski … (voir 22 de plus)

Bruna Morrone

Quentin de Laroussilhe

Mona Gesmundo

Attariyan Sylvain

Gelly

Thomas Wolf

Lysandre Debut

Julien Victor Sanh

Clement Chaumond

Anthony Delangue

Pier-339 Moi

Tim ric Cistac

R´emi Rault

Morgan Louf

Funtow-900 Joe

Sam Davison

Patrick Shleifer

Von Platen

Clara Ma

Yacine Jernite

Julien Plu

Canwen Xu

Opinion summarization research has primar-001 ily focused on generating summaries reflect-002 ing important opinions from customer reviews 0… (voir plus)03 without paying much attention to the writing 004 style. In this paper, we propose the stylized 005 opinion summarization task, which aims to 006 generate a summary of customer reviews in 007 the desired (e.g., professional) writing style. 008 To tackle the difficulty in collecting customer 009 and professional review pairs, we develop a 010 non-parallel training framework, Noisy Pair-011 ing and Partial Supervision ( NAPA ), which 012 trains a stylized opinion summarization sys-013 tem from non-parallel customer and profes-014 sional review sets. We create a benchmark P RO - 015 S UM by collecting customer and professional 016 reviews from Yelp and Michelin. Experimental 017 results on P RO S UM and FewSum demonstrate 018 that our non-parallel training framework con-019 sistently improves both automatic and human 020 evaluations, successfully building a stylized 021 opinion summarization model that can gener-022 ate professionally-written summaries from cus-023 tomer reviews. 024

2023-01-01

(publié)

www.semanticscholar.org

Tackling Climate Change with Machine Learning

David Rolnick

Priya L. Donti

Lynn H. Kaack

Kelly Kochanski

Alexandre Lacoste

Kris Sankaran

Andrew Slavin Ross

Nikola Milojevic-Dupont

Natasha Jaques

Anna Waldman-Brown

Alexandra Luccioni

Evan David Sherwin

S. Karthik Mukkavilli

Konrad Paul Kording

Carla P. Gomes

Andrew Y. Ng

Demis Hassabis

John C. Platt

Felix Creutzig … (voir 2 de plus)

Jennifer T Chayes

Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing humanity, and we, as machine learning (ML) experts, may wonder how we can help. Here… (voir plus) we describe how ML can be a powerful tool in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and helping society adapt to a changing climate. From smart grids to disaster management, we identify high impact problems where existing gaps can be filled by ML, in collaboration with other fields. Our recommendations encompass exciting research questions as well as promising business opportunities. We call on the ML community to join the global effort against climate change.

2022-02-07

ACM Computing Surveys (publié)

arxiv.org

Deep Learning for Detecting Extreme Weather Patterns

Mayur Mudigonda

Mayur Mudigonda, Prabhat Ram

Prabhat Ram

Karthik Kashinath

Evan Racah

Ankur Mahesh

Yunjie Liu

Christopher Beckham

Jim Biard

Thorsten Kurth

Sookyung Kim

Samira Ebrahimi Kahou

Burlen Loring

Travis O'Brien

K. Kunkel

Kenneth E. Kunkel

M. Wehner

Michael F. Wehner … (voir 2 de plus)

W. Collins

William D. Collins

2021-08-20

Deep Learning for the Earth Sciences (publié)

Predicting Infectiousness for Proactive Contact Tracing

Prateek Gupta

Nasim Rahaman