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Forecasting is a critical task in decision making across various domains. While numerical data provides a foundation, it often lacks crucial… (voir plus) context necessary for accurate predictions. Human forecasters frequently rely on additional information, such as background knowledge or constraints, which can be efficiently communicated through natural language. However, the ability of existing forecasting models to effectively integrate this textual information remains an open question. To address this, we introduce"Context is Key"(CiK), a time series forecasting benchmark that pairs numerical data with diverse types of carefully crafted textual context, requiring models to integrate both modalities. We evaluate a range of approaches, including statistical models, time series foundation models, and LLM-based forecasters, and propose a simple yet effective LLM prompting method that outperforms all other tested methods on our benchmark. Our experiments highlight the importance of incorporating contextual information, demonstrate surprising performance when using LLM-based forecasting models, and also reveal some of their critical shortcomings. By presenting this benchmark, we aim to advance multimodal forecasting, promoting models that are both accurate and accessible to decision-makers with varied technical expertise. The benchmark can be visualized at https://servicenow.github.io/context-is-key-forecasting/v0/ .
Forecasting is a critical task in decision making across various domains. While numerical data provides a foundation, it often lacks crucial… (voir plus) context necessary for accurate predictions. Human forecasters frequently rely on additional information, such as background knowledge or constraints, which can be efficiently communicated through natural language. However, the ability of existing forecasting models to effectively integrate this textual information remains an open question. To address this, we introduce"Context is Key"(CiK), a time series forecasting benchmark that pairs numerical data with diverse types of carefully crafted textual context, requiring models to integrate both modalities. We evaluate a range of approaches, including statistical models, time series foundation models, and LLM-based forecasters, and propose a simple yet effective LLM prompting method that outperforms all other tested methods on our benchmark. Our experiments highlight the importance of incorporating contextual information, demonstrate surprising performance when using LLM-based forecasting models, and also reveal some of their critical shortcomings. By presenting this benchmark, we aim to advance multimodal forecasting, promoting models that are both accurate and accessible to decision-makers with varied technical expertise. The benchmark can be visualized at https://servicenow.github.io/context-is-key-forecasting/v0/ .
Brain function represents one of the most complex systems driving our world. Decoding its signals poses significant challenges, particularly… (voir plus) due to the limited availability of data and the high cost of recordings. The existence of large hospital datasets and laboratory collections partially mitigates this issue. However, the lack of standardized recording protocols, varying numbers of channels, diverse setups, scenarios, and recording devices further complicate the task. This work addresses these challenges by introducing the Brain Foundation Model (BFM), a suite of open-source models trained on brain signals. These models serve as foundational tools for various types of time-series neuroimaging tasks. This work presents the first model of the BFM series, which is trained on electroencephalogram signal data. Our results demonstrate that BFM-EEG can generate signals more accurately than other models. Upon acceptance, we will release the model weights and pipeline.
