Jithendaraa Subramanian

Étienne Marcotte

Valentina Zantedeschi

Alexandre Lacoste

Forecasting is a critical task in decision-making across numerous domains. While historical numerical data provide a start, they fail to con… (see more)vey the complete context for reliable and accurate predictions. Human forecasters frequently rely on additional information, such as background knowledge and constraints, which can efficiently be communicated through natural language. However, in spite of recent progress with LLM-based forecasters, their ability to effectively integrate this textual information remains an open question. To address this, we introduce "Context is Key" (CiK), a time-series forecasting benchmark that pairs numerical data with diverse types of carefully crafted textual context, requiring models to integrate both modalities; crucially, every task in CiK requires understanding textual context to be solved successfully. We evaluate a range of approaches, including statistical models, time series foundation models, and LLM-based forecasters, and propose a simple yet effective LLM prompting method that outperforms all other tested methods on our benchmark. Our experiments highlight the importance of incorporating contextual information, demonstrate surprising performance when using LLM-based forecasting models, and also reveal some of their critical shortcomings. This benchmark aims to advance multimodal forecasting by promoting models that are both accurate and accessible to decision-makers with varied technical expertise. The benchmark can be visualized at https://servicenow.github.io/context-is-key-forecasting/v0.

2025-10-06

Proceedings of the 42nd International Conference on Machine Learning (published)

proceedings.mlr.press

Context is Key: A Benchmark for Forecasting with Essential Textual Information

Andrew Robert Williams

Étienne Marcotte

Valentina Zantedeschi

Alexandre Lacoste

2025-05-01

ICML.cc/2025/Conference (poster)

openreview.net

Context is Key: A Benchmark for Forecasting with Essential Textual Information

Andrew Robert Williams

Étienne Marcotte

Valentina Zantedeschi

Alexandre Lacoste

Forecasting is a critical task in decision making across various domains. While numerical data provides a foundation, it often lacks crucial… (see more) context necessary for accurate predictions. Human forecasters frequently rely on additional information, such as background knowledge or constraints, which can be efficiently communicated through natural language. However, the ability of existing forecasting models to effectively integrate this textual information remains an open question. To address this, we introduce"Context is Key"(CiK), a time series forecasting benchmark that pairs numerical data with diverse types of carefully crafted textual context, requiring models to integrate both modalities. We evaluate a range of approaches, including statistical models, time series foundation models, and LLM-based forecasters, and propose a simple yet effective LLM prompting method that outperforms all other tested methods on our benchmark. Our experiments highlight the importance of incorporating contextual information, demonstrate surprising performance when using LLM-based forecasting models, and also reveal some of their critical shortcomings. By presenting this benchmark, we aim to advance multimodal forecasting, promoting models that are both accurate and accessible to decision-makers with varied technical expertise. The benchmark can be visualized at https://servicenow.github.io/context-is-key-forecasting/v0/ .

2024-10-24

ArXiv (preprint)

Context is Key: A Benchmark for Forecasting with Essential Textual Information

Andrew Robert Williams

Étienne Marcotte

Valentina Zantedeschi

Alexandre Lacoste

Forecasting is a critical task in decision making across various domains. While numerical data provides a foundation, it often lacks crucial… (see more) context necessary for accurate predictions. Human forecasters frequently rely on additional information, such as background knowledge or constraints, which can be efficiently communicated through natural language. However, the ability of existing forecasting models to effectively integrate this textual information remains an open question. To address this, we introduce"Context is Key"(CiK), a time series forecasting benchmark that pairs numerical data with diverse types of carefully crafted textual context, requiring models to integrate both modalities. We evaluate a range of approaches, including statistical models, time series foundation models, and LLM-based forecasters, and propose a simple yet effective LLM prompting method that outperforms all other tested methods on our benchmark. Our experiments highlight the importance of incorporating contextual information, demonstrate surprising performance when using LLM-based forecasting models, and also reveal some of their critical shortcomings. By presenting this benchmark, we aim to advance multimodal forecasting, promoting models that are both accurate and accessible to decision-makers with varied technical expertise. The benchmark can be visualized at https://servicenow.github.io/context-is-key-forecasting/v0/ .

2024-10-24

ArXiv (preprint)

Reinforcement Learning for Sequence Design Leveraging Protein Language Models

Shiva Kanth Sujit

Niloy Irtisam

Umong Sain

Derek Nowrouzezahrai

Samira Ebrahimi Kahou

Riashat Islam

2024-07-03

ArXiv (preprint)

Joint Bayesian Inference of Graphical Structure and Parameters with a Single Generative Flow Network

Tristan Deleu

Mizu Nishikawa-Toomey

Nikolay Malkin

Laurent Charlin

Yoshua Bengio

Generative Flow Networks (GFlowNets), a class of generative models over discrete and structured sample spaces, have been previously applied … (see more)to the problem of inferring the marginal posterior distribution over the directed acyclic graph (DAG) of a Bayesian Network, given a dataset of observations. Based on recent advances extending this framework to non-discrete sample spaces, we propose in this paper to approximate the joint posterior over not only the structure of a Bayesian Network, but also the parameters of its conditional probability distributions. We use a single GFlowNet whose sampling policy follows a two-phase process: the DAG is first generated sequentially one edge at a time, and then the corresponding parameters are picked once the full structure is known. Since the parameters are included in the posterior distribution, this leaves more flexibility for the local probability models of the Bayesian Network, making our approach applicable even to non-linear models parametrized by neural networks. We show that our method, called JSP-GFN, offers an accurate approximation of the joint posterior, while comparing favorably against existing methods on both simulated and real data.

openreview.net

Bayesian learning of Causal Structure and Mechanisms with GFlowNets and Variational Bayes

Mizu Nishikawa-Toomey

Tristan Deleu

Yoshua Bengio

Laurent Charlin

Bayesian causal structure learning aims to learn a posterior distribution over directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), and the mechanisms that defin… (see more)e the relationship between parent and child variables. By taking a Bayesian approach, it is possible to reason about the uncertainty of the causal model. The notion of modelling the uncertainty over models is particularly crucial for causal structure learning since the model could be unidentifiable when given only a finite amount of observational data. In this paper, we introduce a novel method to jointly learn the structure and mechanisms of the causal model using Variational Bayes, which we call Variational Bayes-DAG-GFlowNet (VBG). We extend the method of Bayesian causal structure learning using GFlowNets to learn not only the posterior distribution over the structure, but also the parameters of a linear-Gaussian model. Our results on simulated data suggest that VBG is competitive against several baselines in modelling the posterior over DAGs and mechanisms, while offering several advantages over existing methods, including the guarantee to sample acyclic graphs, and the flexibility to generalize to non-linear causal mechanisms.

2022-11-04

ArXiv (preprint)

Learning Latent Structural Causal Models

Yashas Annadani

Ivaxi Sheth

Nan Rosemary Ke

Tristan Deleu

Stefan Bauer

Derek Nowrouzezahrai

Samira Ebrahimi Kahou

Causal learning has long concerned itself with the accurate recovery of underlying causal mechanisms. Such causal modelling enables better e… (see more)xplanations of out-of-distribution data. Prior works on causal learning assume that the high-level causal variables are given. However, in machine learning tasks, one often operates on low-level data like image pixels or high-dimensional vectors. In such settings, the entire Structural Causal Model (SCM) -- structure, parameters, \textit{and} high-level causal variables -- is unobserved and needs to be learnt from low-level data. We treat this problem as Bayesian inference of the latent SCM, given low-level data. For linear Gaussian additive noise SCMs, we present a tractable approximate inference method which performs joint inference over the causal variables, structure and parameters of the latent SCM from random, known interventions. Experiments are performed on synthetic datasets and a causally generated image dataset to demonstrate the efficacy of our approach. We also perform image generation from unseen interventions, thereby verifying out of distribution generalization for the proposed causal model.

2022-10-24

ArXiv (preprint)