The Madness of Multiple Entries in March Madness
Jeff Decary
David Bergman
Carlos Henrique Cardonha
Jason Imbrogno
Andrea Lodi
This paper explores multi-entry strategies for betting pools related to single-elimination tournaments. In such betting pools, participants … (voir plus)select winners of games, and their respective score is a weighted sum of the number of correct selections. Most betting pools have a top-heavy payoff structure, so the paper focuses on strategies that maximize the expected score of the best-performing entry. There is no known closed-formula expression for the estimation of this metric, so the paper investigates the challenges associated with the estimation and the optimization of multi-entry solutions. We present an exact dynamic programming approach for calculating the maximum expected score of any given fixed solution, which is exponential in the number of entries. We explore the structural properties of the problem to develop several solution techniques. In particular, by extracting insights from the solutions produced by one of our algorithms, we design a simple yet effective problem-specific heuristic that was the best-performing technique in our experiments, which were based on real-world data extracted from recent March Madness tournaments. In particular, our results show that the best 100-entry solution identified by our heuristic had a 2.2% likelihood of winning a
Tree semantic segmentation from aerial image time series
Venkatesh Ramesh
Arthur Ouaknine
Chronosymbolic Learning: Efficient CHC Solving with Symbolic Reasoning and Inductive Learning
Ziyan Luo
Solving Constrained Horn Clauses (CHCs) is a fundamental challenge behind a wide range of verification and analysis tasks. Data-driven appro… (voir plus)aches show great promise in improving CHC solving without the painstaking manual effort of creating and tuning various heuristics. However, a large performance gap exists between data-driven CHC solvers and symbolic reasoning-based solvers. In this work, we develop a simple but effective framework,"Chronosymbolic Learning", which unifies symbolic information and numerical data points to solve a CHC system efficiently. We also present a simple instance of Chronosymbolic Learning with a data-driven learner and a BMC-styled reasoner. Despite its great simplicity, experimental results show the efficacy and robustness of our tool. It outperforms state-of-the-art CHC solvers on a dataset consisting of 288 benchmarks, including many instances with non-linear integer arithmetics.
Evaluating the transferability potential of deep learning models for climate downscaling
Ayush Prasad
Paula Harder
Qidong Yang
Prasanna Sattegeri
D. Szwarcman
Campbell Watson
Climate downscaling, the process of generating high-resolution climate data from low-resolution simulations, is essential for understanding … (voir plus)and adapting to climate change at regional and local scales. Deep learning approaches have proven useful in tackling this problem. However, existing studies usually focus on training models for one specific task, location and variable, which are therefore limited in their generalizability and transferability. In this paper, we evaluate the efficacy of training deep learning downscaling models on multiple diverse climate datasets to learn more robust and transferable representations. We evaluate the effectiveness of architectures zero-shot transferability using CNNs, Fourier Neural Operators (FNOs), and vision Transformers (ViTs). We assess the spatial, variable, and product transferability of downscaling models experimentally, to understand the generalizability of these different architecture types.
Evaluating the transferability potential of deep learning models for climate downscaling
Ayush Prasad
Paula Harder
Qidong Yang
Prasanna Sattegeri
Daniela Szwarcman
Campbell Watson
Climate downscaling, the process of generating high-resolution climate data from low-resolution simulations, is essential for understanding … (voir plus)and adapting to climate change at regional and local scales. Deep learning approaches have proven useful in tackling this problem. However, existing studies usually focus on training models for one specific task, location and variable, which are therefore limited in their generalizability and transferability. In this paper, we evaluate the efficacy of training deep learning downscaling models on multiple diverse climate datasets to learn more robust and transferable representations. We evaluate the effectiveness of architectures zero-shot transferability using CNNs, Fourier Neural Operators (FNOs), and vision Transformers (ViTs). We assess the spatial, variable, and product transferability of downscaling models experimentally, to understand the generalizability of these different architecture types.
Spectra: A Comprehensive Study of Ternary, Quantized, and FP16 Language Models
Ayush Kaushal
Tejas Pandey
Tejas Vaidhya
Aaryan Bhagat
Spectra: Surprising Effectiveness of Pretraining Ternary Language Models at Scale
Ayush Kaushal
Tejas Pandey
Tejas Vaidhya
Arnab Kumar Mondal
Aaryan Bhagat
Spectra: Surprising Effectiveness of Pretraining Ternary Language Models at Scale
Ayush Kaushal
Tejas Pandey
Tejas Vaidhya
Aaryan Bhagat
Textualized and Feature-based Models for Compound Multimodal Emotion Recognition in the Wild
Nicolas Richet
Soufiane Belharbi
Muhammad Haseeb Aslam
Meike Emilie Schadt
Manuela Gonz'alez-Gonz'alez
Gustave Cortal
Alessandro Lameiras Koerich
Alain Finkel
Simon Bacon
Eric Granger
Systems for multimodal emotion recognition (ER) are commonly trained to extract features from different modalities (e.g., visual, audio, and… (voir plus) textual) that are combined to predict individual basic emotions. However, compound emotions often occur in real-world scenarios, and the uncertainty of recognizing such complex emotions over diverse modalities is challenging for feature-based models. As an alternative, emerging large language models (LLMs) like BERT and LLaMA can rely on explicit non-verbal cues that may be translated from different non-textual modalities (e.g., audio and visual) into text. Textualization of modalities augments data with emotional cues to help the LLM encode the interconnections between all modalities in a shared text space. In such text-based models, prior knowledge of ER tasks is leveraged to textualize relevant non-verbal cues such as audio tone from vocal expressions, and action unit intensity from facial expressions. Since the pre-trained weights are publicly available for many LLMs, training on large-scale datasets is unnecessary, allowing to fine-tune for downstream tasks such as compound ER (CER). This paper compares the potential of text- and feature-based approaches for compound multimodal ER in videos. Experiments were conducted on the challenging C-EXPR-DB dataset in the wild for CER, and contrasted with results on the MELD dataset for basic ER. Our results indicate that multimodal textualization provides lower accuracy than feature-based models on C-EXPR-DB, where text transcripts are captured in the wild. However, higher accuracy can be achieved when the video data has rich transcripts. Our code is available.
UTG: Towards a Unified View of Snapshot and Event Based Models for Temporal Graphs
Shenyang Huang
Farimah Poursafaei
Emanuele Rossi
Many real world graphs are inherently dynamic, constantly evolving with node and edge additions. These graphs can be represented by temporal… (voir plus) graphs, either through a stream of edge events or a sequence of graph snapshots. Until now, the development of machine learning methods for both types has occurred largely in isolation, resulting in limited experimental comparison and theoretical crosspollination between the two. In this paper, we introduce Unified Temporal Graph (UTG), a framework that unifies snapshot-based and event-based machine learning models under a single umbrella, enabling models developed for one representation to be applied effectively to datasets of the other. We also propose a novel UTG training procedure to boost the performance of snapshot-based models in the streaming setting. We comprehensively evaluate both snapshot and event-based models across both types of temporal graphs on the temporal link prediction task. Our main findings are threefold: first, when combined with UTG training, snapshot-based models can perform competitively with event-based models such as TGN and GraphMixer even on event datasets. Second, snapshot-based models are at least an order of magnitude faster than most event-based models during inference. Third, while event-based methods such as NAT and DyGFormer outperforms snapshot-based methods on both types of temporal graphs, this is because they leverage joint neighborhood structural features thus emphasizing the potential to incorporate these features into snapshotbased models as well. These findings highlight the importance of comparing model architectures independent of the data format and suggest the potential of combining the efficiency of snapshot-based models with the performance of event-based models in the future.
When can transformers compositionally generalize in-context?
Seijin Kobayashi
Simon Schug
Yassir Akram
Florian Redhardt
Johannes Von Oswald
João Sacramento
Many tasks can be composed from a few independent components. This gives rise to a combinatorial explosion of possible tasks, only some of w… (voir plus)hich might be encountered during training. Under what circumstances can transformers compositionally generalize from a subset of tasks to all possible combinations of tasks that share similar components? Here we study a modular multitask setting that allows us to precisely control compositional structure in the data generation process. We present evidence that transformers learning in-context struggle to generalize compositionally on this task despite being in principle expressive enough to do so. Compositional generalization becomes possible only when introducing a bottleneck that enforces an explicit separation between task inference and task execution.
scSemiProfiler: Advancing Large-scale Single-cell Studies through Semi-profiling with Deep Generative Models and Active Learning
Jingtao Wang
Gregory Fonseca