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Machine learning (ML) emulators provide a fast and cost-effective method to simulate climate change scenarios after being trained on Earth S… (voir plus)ystem Models projections. However, the black-box nature of those data-driven approaches limit the usability and trustworthiness of their outputs and in particular their use as causal attribution tools. Here, we develop a hierarchical causal representation learning framework applied to sea surface temperature fields from a state-of-the-art global climate model. As a key advance over previous work, our framework explicitly models both atmospheric dynamical interactions arising from internal climate variability and forced responses due to changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations. When trained on future climate change scenarios, our method accurately predicts the long-term global mean and regional temperature evolution and shows physically realistic responses to perturbations in greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations when evaluated on unseen scenarios. Our results underline the potential of causal representation learning frameworks for advancing climate model emulation.
Identifying sequences of syllables within birdsongs is key to tackling a wide array of challenges, including bird individual identification … (voir plus)and better understanding of animal communication and sensory-motor learning. Recently, machine learning approaches have demonstrated great potential to alleviate the need for experts to label long audio recordings by hand. However, they still typically rely on the availability of labelled data for model training, restricting applicability to a few species and datasets. In this work, we build the first fully unsupervised algorithm to decompose birdsong recordings into sequences of syllables. We first detect syllable events, then cluster them to extract templates -- syllable representations -- before performing matching pursuit to decompose the recording as a sequence of syllables. We evaluate our automatic annotations against human labels on a dataset of Bengalese finch songs and find that our unsupervised method achieves high performance. We also demonstrate that our approach can distinguish individual birds within a species through their unique vocal signatures, for both Bengalese finches and another species, the great tit.
2026-04-20
IEEE Conference on Acoustics, Speech and Signal Processing (publié)
Traditional models of climate change use complex systems of coupled equations to simulate physical processes across the Earth system. These … (voir plus)simulations are highly computationally expensive, limiting our predictions of climate change and analyses of its causes and effects. Machine learning has the potential to quickly emulate data from climate models, but current approaches are not able to incorporate physically-based causal relationships. Here, we develop an interpretable climate model emulator based on causal representation learning. We derive a novel approach including a Bayesian filter for stable long-term autoregressive emulation. We demonstrate that our emulator learns accurate climate dynamics, and we show the importance of each one of its components on a realistic synthetic dataset and data from two widely deployed climate models.
2025-12-02
Neural Information Processing Systems (Accept (poster))
Climate models, such as Earth system models (ESMs), are crucial for simulating future climate change based on projected Shared Socioeconomic… (voir plus) Pathways (SSP) greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. While ESMs are sophisticated and invaluable, machine learning-based emulators trained on existing simulation data can project additional climate scenarios much faster and are computationally efficient. However, they often lack generalizability and interpretability. This work delves into the potential of causal representation learning, specifically the \emph{Causal Discovery with Single-parent Decoding} (CDSD) method, which could render climate model emulation efficient \textit{and} interpretable. We evaluate CDSD on multiple climate datasets, focusing on emissions, temperature, and precipitation. Our findings shed light on the challenges, limitations, and promise of using CDSD as a stepping stone towards more interpretable and robust climate model emulation.