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James Requeima

Visiteur de recherche indépendant - UdeM
Superviseur⋅e principal⋅e
Yoshua Bengio
Sujets de recherche
Modèles génératifs
Modèles probabilistes

Publications

Context is Key: A Benchmark for Forecasting with Essential Textual Information
Andrew Robert Williams
Arjun Ashok
Étienne Marcotte
Valentina Zantedeschi
Jithendaraa Subramanian
Roland Riachi
James Requeima
Alexandre Lacoste
Irina Rish
Nicolas Chapados
Alexandre Drouin
Forecasting is a critical task in decision-making across numerous domains. While historical numerical data provide a start, they fail to con… (voir plus)vey the complete context for reliable and accurate predictions. Human forecasters frequently rely on additional information, such as background knowledge and constraints, which can efficiently be communicated through natural language. However, in spite of recent progress with LLM-based forecasters, their ability to effectively integrate this textual information remains an open question. To address this, we introduce "Context is Key" (CiK), a time-series forecasting benchmark that pairs numerical data with diverse types of carefully crafted textual context, requiring models to integrate both modalities; crucially, every task in CiK requires understanding textual context to be solved successfully. We evaluate a range of approaches, including statistical models, time series foundation models, and LLM-based forecasters, and propose a simple yet effective LLM prompting method that outperforms all other tested methods on our benchmark. Our experiments highlight the importance of incorporating contextual information, demonstrate surprising performance when using LLM-based forecasting models, and also reveal some of their critical shortcomings. This benchmark aims to advance multimodal forecasting by promoting models that are both accurate and accessible to decision-makers with varied technical expertise. The benchmark can be visualized at https://servicenow.github.io/context-is-key-forecasting/v0.
2025-10-06
Proceedings of the 42nd International Conference on Machine Learning (publié)
proceedings.mlr.press
Context is Key: A Benchmark for Forecasting with Essential Textual Information
Andrew Robert Williams
Arjun Ashok
Étienne Marcotte
Valentina Zantedeschi
Jithendaraa Subramanian
Roland Riachi
James Requeima
Alexandre Lacoste
Irina Rish
Nicolas Chapados
Alexandre Drouin
2025-05-01
ICML.cc/2025/Conference (poster)
doi.org
openreview.net
Context is Key: A Benchmark for Forecasting with Essential Textual Information
Andrew Robert Williams
Arjun Ashok
Étienne Marcotte
Valentina Zantedeschi
Jithendaraa Subramanian
Roland Riachi
James Requeima
Alexandre Lacoste
Irina Rish
Nicolas Chapados
Alexandre Drouin
Forecasting is a critical task in decision making across various domains. While numerical data provides a foundation, it often lacks crucial… (voir plus) context necessary for accurate predictions. Human forecasters frequently rely on additional information, such as background knowledge or constraints, which can be efficiently communicated through natural language. However, the ability of existing forecasting models to effectively integrate this textual information remains an open question. To address this, we introduce"Context is Key"(CiK), a time series forecasting benchmark that pairs numerical data with diverse types of carefully crafted textual context, requiring models to integrate both modalities. We evaluate a range of approaches, including statistical models, time series foundation models, and LLM-based forecasters, and propose a simple yet effective LLM prompting method that outperforms all other tested methods on our benchmark. Our experiments highlight the importance of incorporating contextual information, demonstrate surprising performance when using LLM-based forecasting models, and also reveal some of their critical shortcomings. By presenting this benchmark, we aim to advance multimodal forecasting, promoting models that are both accurate and accessible to decision-makers with varied technical expertise. The benchmark can be visualized at https://servicenow.github.io/context-is-key-forecasting/v0/ .
2024-10-24
ArXiv (prépublication)
doi.org
arxiv.org
Context is Key: A Benchmark for Forecasting with Essential Textual Information
Andrew Robert Williams
Arjun Ashok
Étienne Marcotte
Valentina Zantedeschi
Jithendaraa Subramanian
Roland Riachi
James Requeima
Alexandre Lacoste
Irina Rish
Nicolas Chapados
Alexandre Drouin
Forecasting is a critical task in decision making across various domains. While numerical data provides a foundation, it often lacks crucial… (voir plus) context necessary for accurate predictions. Human forecasters frequently rely on additional information, such as background knowledge or constraints, which can be efficiently communicated through natural language. However, the ability of existing forecasting models to effectively integrate this textual information remains an open question. To address this, we introduce"Context is Key"(CiK), a time series forecasting benchmark that pairs numerical data with diverse types of carefully crafted textual context, requiring models to integrate both modalities. We evaluate a range of approaches, including statistical models, time series foundation models, and LLM-based forecasters, and propose a simple yet effective LLM prompting method that outperforms all other tested methods on our benchmark. Our experiments highlight the importance of incorporating contextual information, demonstrate surprising performance when using LLM-based forecasting models, and also reveal some of their critical shortcomings. By presenting this benchmark, we aim to advance multimodal forecasting, promoting models that are both accurate and accessible to decision-makers with varied technical expertise. The benchmark can be visualized at https://servicenow.github.io/context-is-key-forecasting/v0/ .
2024-10-24
ArXiv (prépublication)
doi.org
arxiv.org