Dans un nouvel article, David Rolnick et ses collègues affirment que la recherche en IA axée sur les problèmes contribuera à accroître l'efficacité à long terme de l'IA.
Ce programme est conçu pour fournir aux professionnel·le·s travaillant dans le domaine de la politique une compréhension fondamentale de la technologie de l'IA.
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We introduce a new model for multivariate probabilistic time series prediction, designed to flexibly address a range of tasks including fore… (voir plus)casting, interpolation, and their combinations. Building on copula theory, we propose a simplified objective for the recently-introduced transformer-based attentional copulas (TACTiS), wherein the number of distributional parameters now scales linearly with the number of variables instead of factorially. The new objective requires the introduction of a training curriculum, which goes hand-in-hand with necessary changes to the original architecture. We show that the resulting model has significantly better training dynamics and achieves state-of-the-art performance across diverse real-world forecasting tasks, while maintaining the flexibility of prior work, such as seamless handling of unaligned and unevenly-sampled time series. Code is made available at https://github.com/ServiceNow/TACTiS.
Aiming to build foundation models for time-series forecasting and study their scaling behavior, we present here our work-in-progress on Lag-… (voir plus)Llama, a general-purpose univariate probabilistic time-series forecasting model trained on a large collection of time-series data. The model shows good zero-shot prediction capabilities on unseen "out-of-distribution" time-series datasets, outperforming supervised baselines. We use smoothly broken power-laws to fit and predict model scaling behavior. The open source code is made available at
https://github.com/kashif/pytorch-transformer-ts.
Over the past years, foundation models have caused a paradigm shift in machine learning due to their unprecedented capabilities for zero-sho… (voir plus)t and few-shot generalization. However, despite the success of foundation models in modalities such as natural language processing and computer vision, the development of foundation models for time series forecasting has lagged behind. We present Lag-Llama, a general-purpose foundation model for univariate probabilistic time series forecasting based on a decoder-only transformer architecture that uses lags as covariates. Lag-Llama is pretrained on a large corpus of diverse time series data from several domains, and demonstrates strong zero-shot generalization capabilities compared to a wide range of forecasting models on downstream datasets across domains. Moreover, when fine-tuned on relatively small fractions of such previously unseen datasets, Lag-Llama achieves state-of-the-art performance, outperforming prior deep learning approaches, emerging as the best general-purpose model on average. Lag-Llama serves as a strong contender to the current state-of-art in time series forecasting and paves the way for future advancements in foundation models tailored to time series data.
We introduce a new model for multivariate probabilistic time series prediction, designed to flexibly address a range of tasks including fore… (voir plus)casting, interpolation, and their combinations. Building on copula theory, we propose a simplified objective for the recently-introduced transformer-based attentional copulas (TACTiS), wherein the number of distributional parameters now scales linearly with the number of variables instead of factorially. The new objective requires the introduction of a training curriculum, which goes hand-in-hand with necessary changes to the original architecture. We show that the resulting model has significantly better training dynamics and achieves state-of-the-art performance across diverse real-world forecasting tasks, while maintaining the flexibility of prior work, such as seamless handling of unaligned and unevenly-sampled time series. Code is made available at https://github.com/ServiceNow/TACTiS.
Aiming to build foundation models for time-series forecasting and study their scaling behavior, we present here our work-in-progress on Lag-… (voir plus)Llama , a general-purpose univariate probabilistic time-series forecasting model trained on a large collection of time-series data. The model shows good zero-shot prediction capabilities on unseen “out-of-distribution” time-series datasets, outperforming supervised baselines. We use smoothly broken power-laws [7] to fit and predict model scaling behavior. The open source code is made available at https://github