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Abstract Human reasoning often involves working over limited information to arrive at probabilistic conclusions. In its simplest form, this … (voir plus)involves making an inference that is not strictly entailed by a premise, but rather only likely given the premise. While reasoning LLMs have demonstrated strong performance on logical and mathematical tasks, their behavior on such open-ended, non-deterministic inferences remains largely unexplored. We introduce PROBCOPA, a dataset of 210 handcrafted probabilistic inferences in English, each annotated for inference likelihood by 25–30 human participants. We find that human responses are graded and varied, revealing probabilistic judgments of the inferences in our dataset. Comparing these judgments with responses from eight state-of-the-art reasoning LLMs, we show that models consistently fail to produce human-like distributions. Finally, analyzing LLM reasoning chains, we find evidence of a common reasoning pattern used to evaluate such inferences. Our findings reveal persistent differences between humans and LLMs, and underscore the need to evaluate reasoning beyond deterministic settings.1
2026-08-27
Transactions of the Association for Computational Linguistics (publié)
LLMs are increasingly deployed as post-hoc explainers of AI-generated outputs, yet it remains unclear whether they can reliably communicate … (voir plus)probabilistic information in natural language. For this role to be viable, models must produce identical verbal descriptions for identical inputs, and select descriptions that accurately reflect the magnitude of the underlying numerical quantities. We evaluate whether nine LLMs meet these requirements within a two-stage prediction pipeline, in which an upstream model has produced probabilistic outputs characterized by their likelihood and uncertainty, and LLMs are tasked with selecting an appropriate verbal descriptor for each. We simulate predictions from an upstream model by taking samples from a Beta distribution parameterized by its mode and prior sample size. We then prompt LLMs to explain these predictions under six domain contexts and with ten temperature settings, and repeating each experiment ten times. We find that LLMs are generally consistent but miscalibrated, with substantially weaker performance on uncertainty than on likelihood tasks. Providing models with precomputed summary statistics (mode and prior sample size) reduced sensitivity to contextual framing but did not resolve the underlying miscalibration, suggesting that the bottleneck resides in the verbalization step itself. These findings indicate that current LLMs do not yet constitute reliable zero-shot standalone risk communication tools for probabilistic predictions.
EDAI Framework for Integrating Equity, Diversity, and Inclusion Throughout the Lifecycle of AI to Improve Health and Oral Health Care: Qualitative Study
Recent studies have identified significant gaps in equity, diversity, and inclusion (EDI) considerations within the lifecycle of artificial … (voir plus)intelligence (AI), spanning from data collection and problem definition to implementation stages. Despite the recognized need for integrating EDI principles, there is currently no existing guideline or framework to support this integration in the AI lifecycle.
This study aimed to address this gap by identifying EDI principles and indicators to be integrated into the AI lifecycle. The goal was to develop a comprehensive guiding framework to guide the development and implementation of future AI systems.
This study was conducted in 3 phases. In phase 1, a comprehensive systematic scoping review explored how EDI principles have been integrated into AI in health and oral health care settings. In phase 2, a multidisciplinary team was established, and two 2-day, in-person international workshops with over 60 representatives from diverse backgrounds, expertise, and communities were conducted. The workshops included plenary presentations, round table discussions, and focused group discussions. In phase 3, based on the workshops’ insights, the EDAI framework was developed and refined through iterative feedback from participants. The results of the initial systematic scoping review have been published separately, and this paper focuses on subsequent phases of the project, which is related to framework development.
In this study, we developed the EDAI framework, a comprehensive guideline that integrates EDI principles and indicators throughout the entire AI lifecycle. This framework addresses existing gaps at various stages, from data collection to implementation, and focuses on individual, organizational, and systemic levels. Additionally, we identified both the facilitators and barriers to integrating EDI within the AI lifecycle in health and oral health care.
The developed EDAI framework provides a comprehensive, actionable guideline for integrating EDI principles into AI development and deployment. By facilitating the systematic incorporation of these principles, the framework supports the creation and implementation of AI systems that are not only technologically advanced but also sensitive to EDI principles.