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Lecteur Multimédia
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Epistemic Uncertainty is a measure of the lack of knowledge of a learner which diminishes with more evidence. While existing work focuses on… (voir plus) using the variance of the Bayesian posterior due to parameter uncertainty as a measure of epistemic uncertainty, we argue that this does not capture the part of lack of knowledge induced by model misspecification. We discuss how the excess risk, which is the gap between the generalization error of a predictor and the Bayes predictor, is a sound measure of epistemic uncertainty which captures the effect of model misspecification. We thus propose a principled framework for directly estimating the excess risk by learning a secondary predictor for the generalization error and subtracting an estimate of aleatoric uncertainty, i.e., intrinsic unpredictability. We discuss the merits of this novel measure of epistemic uncertainty, and highlight how it differs from variance-based measures of epistemic uncertainty and addresses its major pitfall. Our framework, Direct Epistemic Uncertainty Prediction (DEUP) is particularly interesting in interactive learning environments, where the learner is allowed to acquire novel examples in each round. Through a wide set of experiments, we illustrate how existing methods in sequential model optimization can be improved with epistemic uncertainty estimates from DEUP, and how DEUP can be used to drive exploration in reinforcement learning. We also evaluate the quality of uncertainty estimates from DEUP for probabilistic image classification and predicting synergies of drug combinations.
2023-02-12
Transactions on Machine Learning Research (accepté)
We empirically show that classic ideas from two-time scale stochastic approximation \citep{borkar1997stochastic} can be combined with sequen… (voir plus)tial iterative best response (SIBR) to solve complex cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) problems. We first start with giving a multi-agent estimation problem as a motivating example where SIBR converges while parallel iterative best response (PIBR) does not. Then we present a general implementation of staged multi-agent RL algorithms based on SIBR and multi-time scale stochastic approximation, and show that our new methods which we call Staged Independent Proximal Policy Optimization (SIPPO) and Staged Independent Q-learning (SIQL) outperform state-of-the-art independent learning on almost all the tasks in the epymarl \citep{papoudakis2020benchmarking} benchmark. This can be seen as a first step towards more decentralized MARL methods based on SIBR and multi-time scale learning.
Current deep reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms are still highly task-specific and lack the ability to generalize to new environments. L… (voir plus)ifelong learning (LLL), however, aims at solving multiple tasks sequentially by efficiently transferring and using knowledge between tasks. Despite a surge of interest in lifelong RL in recent years, the lack of a realistic testbed makes robust evaluation of LLL algorithms difficult. Multi-agent RL (MARL), on the other hand, can be seen as a natural scenario for lifelong RL due to its inherent non-stationarity, since the agents' policies change over time. In this work, we introduce a multi-agent lifelong learning testbed that supports both zero-shot and few-shot settings. Our setup is based on Hanabi -- a partially-observable, fully cooperative multi-agent game that has been shown to be challenging for zero-shot coordination. Its large strategy space makes it a desirable environment for lifelong RL tasks. We evaluate several recent MARL methods, and benchmark state-of-the-art LLL algorithms in limited memory and computation regimes to shed light on their strengths and weaknesses. This continual learning paradigm also provides us with a pragmatic way of going beyond centralized training which is the most commonly used training protocol in MARL. We empirically show that the agents trained in our setup are able to coordinate well with unseen agents, without any additional assumptions made by previous works. The code and all pre-trained models are available at https://github.com/chandar-lab/Lifelong-Hanabi.
2021-07-19
International Conference on Machine Learning (Spotlight)