David Rolnick

Biography

David Rolnick is an assistant professor at McGill University’s School of Computer Science, a core academic member of Mila – Quebec Artificial Intelligence Institute and holds a Canada CIFAR AI Chair. Rolnick’s work focuses on applications of machine learning to help address climate change. He is the co-founder and chair of Climate Change AI, and scientific co-director of Sustainability in the Digital Age. After completing his PhD in applied mathematics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), he was a NSF Mathematical Sciences Postdoctoral Research Fellow, an NSF Graduate Research Fellow and a Fulbright Scholar. He was named to MIT Technology Review’s “35 Innovators Under 35” in 2021.

Current Students

Aditya Aditya

Collaborating researcher

Collaborating Alumni - McGill University

Collaborating researcher - Cambridge University

Co-supervisor :

Postdoctorate - McGill University

Michael Bunsen

Collaborating researcher - McGill University

Shahana Chatterjee

Collaborating researcher - N/A

Co-supervisor :

Yuyan Chen

PhD - McGill University

Eya Cherif

Collaborating researcher - Leipzig University

Othmane Echchabi

Master's Research - McGill University

Collaborating researcher

Mohamed Elabbas

Collaborating researcher

Jannik Endres

Collaborating researcher

Jacopo Ghirri

Independent visiting researcher - Politecnico di Milano

Paula Harder

Independent visiting researcher

Collaborating researcher - Johannes Kepler University

Christina Isaicu Isaicu

Collaborating researcher - University of Amsterdam

Gaurav Iyer

Master's Research - McGill University

Julia Kaltenborn

PhD - McGill University

Devin Kwok

PhD - McGill University

Independent visiting researcher - Université de Montréal

Pierre-Louis Lemaire

Collaborating researcher - Polytechnique Montréal Montréal

Principal supervisor :

Alex Hernandez-Garcia

Joshi Manoj

Collaborating researcher - University of East Anglia

David Mickisch

Collaborating researcher

Juan Nathaniel Nathaniel

Collaborating researcher - Columbia university

Postdoctorate - McGill University

Co-supervisor :

Lena Podina

Collaborating researcher - University of Waterloo

Co-supervisor :

Venkatesh Ramesh

Collaborating Alumni - Université de Montréal

Marlena Reil

Master's Research - McGill University

Carla Roesch

Collaborating researcher - Columbia university

Rasha Saha

Master's Research - McGill University

Luca Marie Schmidt

Collaborating researcher - University of Tübingen

Independent visiting researcher

Ilija Trajković

Collaborating researcher - Karlsruhe Institute of Technology

Gabriel Tseng

PhD - McGill University

Collaborating Alumni - Université de Montréal

Principal supervisor :

Collaborating researcher

Catherine Villeneuve

PhD - McGill University

Shan Zhao

Collaborating researcher - Technical University of Munich

Democratizing Access to Satellite Data with AI

Blog Posts

diagram illustrating how the AI foundation model for Earth observation, Galileo, works

October 21, 2025

Gabriel Tseng

David Rolnick

Read the article

Publications

BATIS: Bayesian Approaches for Targeted Improvement of Species Distribution Models

Catherine Villeneuve

Benjamin Akera

Mélisande Teng

Species distribution models (SDMs), which aim to predict species occurrence based on environmental variables, are widely used to monitor and… (see more) respond to biodiversity change. Recent deep learning advances for SDMs have been shown to perform well on complex and heterogeneous datasets, but their effectiveness remains limited by spatial biases in the data. In this paper, we revisit deep SDMs from a Bayesian perspective and introduce BATIS, a novel and practical framework wherein prior predictions are updated iteratively using limited observational data. Models must appropriately capture both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty to effectively combine fine-grained local insights with broader ecological patterns. We benchmark an extensive set of uncertainty quantification approaches on a novel dataset including citizen science observations from the eBird platform. Our empirical study shows how Bayesian deep learning approaches can greatly improve the reliability of SDMs in data-scarce locations, which can contribute to ecological understanding and conservation efforts.

2026-03-13

AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (published)

Benchmarking the geographic generalization of deep learning models for precipitation downscaling

Paula Harder

Luca Schmidt

Francis Pelletier

Nicole Ludwig

Matthew Chantry

Christian Lessig

Alex Hernandez-Garcia

Earth System Models (ESM) are our main tool for projecting the impacts of climate change. However, running these models at sufficient resolu… (see more)tion for local-scale risk-assessments is not computationally feasible. Deep learning-based super-resolution models offer a promising solution to downscale ESM outputs to higher resolutions by learning from data. Yet, due to regional variations in climatic processes, these models typically require retraining for each geographical area–demanding high-resolution observational data, which is unevenly available across the globe. This highlights the need to assess how well these models generalize across geographic regions. To address this, we introduce RainShift, a dataset and benchmark for evaluating downscaling under geographic distribution shifts. We evaluate state-of-the-art downscaling approaches including GANs and diffusion models in generalizing across data gaps between the Global North and Global South. Our findings reveal substantial performance drops in out-of-distribution regions, depending on model and geographic area. While expanding the training domain generally improves generalization, it is insufficient to overcome shifts between geographically distinct regions. We show that addressing these shifts through, for example, domain adaptation can improve spatial generalization. Our work advances the global applicability of downscaling methods and represents a step toward reducing inequities in access to high-resolution climate information.

2026-01-26

Scientific Reports (published)

In-Context Reinforcement Learning through Bayesian Fusion of Context and Value Prior

Anaïs Berkes

In-context reinforcement learning (ICRL) promises fast adaptation to unseen environments without parameter updates, but current methods eith… (see more)er cannot improve beyond the training distribution or require near-optimal data, limiting practical adoption. We introduce SPICE, a Bayesian ICRL method that learns a prior over Q-values via deep ensemble and updates this prior at test-time using in-context information through Bayesian updates. To recover from poor priors resulting from training on sub-optimal data, our online inference follows an Upper-Confidence Bound rule that favours exploration and adaptation. We prove that SPICE achieves regret-optimal behaviour in both stochastic bandits and finite-horizon MDPs, even when pretrained only on suboptimal trajectories. We validate these findings empirically across bandit and control benchmarks. SPICE achieves near-optimal decisions on unseen tasks, substantially reduces regret compared to prior ICRL and meta-RL approaches while rapidly adapting to unseen tasks and remaining robust under distribution shift.

2025-12-31

arXiv (preprint)

Adsorption energies are necessary but not sufficient to identify good catalysts

Alexander Davis

Alexandre AGM Duval

Oleksandr Voznyy

Alex Hern'andez-Garcia

Félix Therrien

2025-12-04

ArXiv (preprint)

Deploying Geospatial Foundation Models in the Real World: Lessons from WorldCereal

Christina Butsko

Gabriel Tseng

Kristof Van Tricht

Giorgia Milli

Ruben Cartuyvels

Inbal Becker Reshef

Zoltan Szantoi

Hannah Kerner

The increasing availability of geospatial foundation models has the potential to transform remote sensing applications such as land cover cl… (see more)assification, environmental monitoring, and change detection. Despite promising benchmark results, the deployment of these models in operational settings is challenging and rare. Standardized evaluation tasks often fail to capture real-world complexities relevant for end-user adoption such as data heterogeneity, resource constraints, and application-specific requirements. This paper presents a structured approach to integrate geospatial foundation models into operational mapping systems. Our protocol has three key steps: defining application requirements, adapting the model to domain-specific data and conducting rigorous empirical testing. Using the Presto model in a case study for crop mapping, we demonstrate that fine-tuning a pre-trained model significantly improves performance over conventional supervised methods. Our results highlight the model’s strong spatial and temporal generalization capabilities. Our protocol provides a replicable blueprint for practitioners and lays the groundwork for future research to operationalize foundation models in diverse remote sensing applications. Application of the protocol to the WorldCereal global crop-mapping system showcases the framework’s scalability.

2025-12-01

Proceedings of The TerraBytes {ICML} Workshop: Towards global datasets and models for Earth Observation (published)

proceedings.mlr.press

On Global Applicability and Location Transferability of Generative Deep Learning Models for Precipitation Downscaling

Paula Harder

Christian Lessig

Matthew Chantry

Francis Pelletier

2025-11-30

ArXiv (preprint)

A HOT Dataset: 150,000 Buildings for HVAC Operations Transfer Research

Anaïs Berkes

About 12% of global energy consumption is attributable to heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems in buildings [11]. Machi… (see more)ne learning-based intelligent HVAC control offers significant energy efficiency potential, but progress is constrained by limited data for training and evaluating performance across different kinds of buildings. Existing datasets primarily target energy prediction rather than control applications, forcing studies to rely on limited building sets or single-variable perturbations that fail to capture real-world complexity. We present HOT (HVAC Operations Transfer), the first large-scale open-source dataset purpose-built for research into transfer learning in building control. HOT contains 159,744 unique building-weather combinations with systematic variations across envelope properties, occupancy patterns, and climate conditions spanning all 19 ASHRAE climate zones across 76 global locations. We formalise a comprehensive similarity-based framework with quantitative metrics for assessing transfer feasibility between source and target buildings across multiple context dimensions. Our key contributions: (1) a large-scale, open dataset and tooling enabling systematic, multi-variable transfer studies across 19 climate zones; (2) a quantitative similarity framework spanning geometry, thermal, climate, and function; and (3) zero-shot climate transfer experiments showing why realistic context variation matters for HVAC control.

2025-11-10

Proceedings of the 12th ACM International Conference on Systems for Energy-Efficient Buildings, Cities, and Transportation (published)

A HOT Dataset: 150,000 Buildings for HVAC Operations Transfer Research

Anaïs Berkes

2025-11-10

Proceedings of the 12th ACM International Conference on Systems for Energy-Efficient Buildings, Cities, and Transportation (published)

Alberta Wells Dataset: Pinpointing Oil and Gas Wells from Satellite Imagery

Pratinav Seth

Michelle Lin

Brefo Dwamena Yaw

Jade Boutot

Mary Kang

Millions of abandoned oil and gas wells are scattered across the world, leaching methane into the atmosphere and toxic compounds into the gr… (see more)oundwater. Many of these locations are unknown, preventing the wells from being plugged and their polluting effects averted. Remote sensing is a relatively unexplored tool for pinpointing abandoned wells at scale. We introduce the first large-scale benchmark dataset for this problem, leveraging medium-resolution multi-spectral satellite imagery from Planet Labs. Our curated dataset comprises over 213,000 wells (abandoned, suspended, and active) from Alberta, a region with especially high well density, sourced from the Alberta Energy Regulator and verified by domain experts. We evaluate baseline algorithms for well detection and segmentation, showing the promise of computer vision approaches but also significant room for improvement.

2025-10-05

Proceedings of the 42nd International Conference on Machine Learning (published)

proceedings.mlr.press

HVAC-SPICE: Value-Uncertainty In-Context RL with Thompson Sampling for Zero-Shot HVAC Control

Anaïs Berkes

Urban buildings consume 40\% of global energy, yet most rely on inefficient rule-based HVAC systems due to the impracticality of deploying a… (see more)dvanced controllers across diverse building stock. In-context reinforcement learning (ICRL) offers promise for rapid deployment without per-building training, but standard supervised learning objectives that maximise likelihood of training actions inherit behaviour-policy bias and provide weak exploration under the distribution shifts common when transferring across buildings and climates. We present SPICE (Sampling Policies In-Context with Ensemble uncertainty), a novel ICRL method specifically designed for zero-shot building control that addresses these fundamental limitations. SPICE introduces two key methodological innovations: (i) a propensity-corrected, return-aware training objective that prioritises high-advantage, high-uncertainty actions to enable improvement beyond suboptimal training demonstrations, and (ii) lightweight value ensembles with randomised priors that provide explicit uncertainty estimates for principled episode-level Thompson sampling. At deployment, SPICE samples one value head per episode and acts greedily, resulting in temporally coherent exploration without test-time gradients or building-specific models. We establish a comprehensive experimental protocol using the HOT dataset to evaluate SPICE across diverse building types and climate zones, focusing on the energy efficiency, occupant comfort, and zero-shot transfer capabilities that are critical for urban-scale deployment.

2025-09-29

NeurIPS.cc/2025/Workshop/UrbanAI (poster)

openreview.net

Graph Dreamer: Temporal Graph World Models for Sample-Efficient and Generalisable Reinforcement Learning

Anaïs Berkes

2025-09-21

NeurIPS.cc/2025/Workshop/WiML (published)

openreview.net

Catalyst GFlowNet for electrocatalyst design: A hydrogen evolution reaction case study

Alexandre AGM Duval

Alex Hernandez-Garcia

Félix Therrien

Efficient and inexpensive energy storage is essential for accelerating the adoption of renewable energy and ensuring a stable supply, despit… (see more)e fluctuations in sources such as wind and solar. Electrocatalysts play a key role in hydrogen energy storage (HES), allowing the energy to be stored as hydrogen. However, the development of affordable and high-performance catalysts for this process remains a significant challenge. We introduce Catalyst GFlowNet, a generative model that leverages machine learning-based predictors of formation and adsorption energy to design crystal surfaces that act as efficient catalysts. We demonstrate the performance of the model through a proof-of-concept application to the hydrogen evolution reaction, a key reaction in HES, for which we successfully identified platinum as the most efficient known catalyst. In future work, we aim to extend this approach to the oxygen evolution reaction, where current optimal catalysts are expensive metal oxides, and open the search space to discover new materials. This generative modeling framework offers a promising pathway for accelerating the search for novel and efficient catalysts.

2025-09-19

NeurIPS.cc/2025/Workshop/AI4Mat (poster)