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Publications
Planning as Inference in Epidemiological Models
Frank Wood
Andrew Warrington
Saeid Naderiparizi
Christian Dietrich Weilbach
Vaden Masrani
William Harvey
Adam Ścibior
Boyan Beronov
Seyed Ali Nasseri
In this work we demonstrate how existing software tools can be used to automate parts of infectious disease-control policy-making via perfor… (see more)ming inference in existing epidemiological dynamics models. The kind of inference tasks undertaken include computing, for planning purposes, the posterior distribution over putatively controllable, via direct policy-making choices, simulation model parameters that give rise to acceptable disease progression outcomes. Neither the full capabilities of such inference automation software tools nor their utility for planning is widely disseminated at the current time. Timely gains in understanding about these tools and how they can be used may lead to more fine-grained and less economically damaging policy prescriptions, particularly during the current COVID-19 pandemic.
In this work we demonstrate how existing software tools can be used to automate parts of infectious disease-control policy-making via perfor… (see more)ming inference in existing epidemiological dynamics models. The kind of inference tasks undertaken include computing, for planning purposes, the posterior distribution over putatively controllable, via direct policy-making choices, simulation model parameters that give rise to acceptable disease progression outcomes. Neither the full capabilities of such inference automation software tools nor their utility for planning is widely disseminated at the current time. Timely gains in understanding about these tools and how they can be used may lead to more fine-grained and less economically damaging policy prescriptions, particularly during the current COVID-19 pandemic.
Deterministic models are approximations of reality that are easy to interpret and often easier to build than stochastic alternatives. Unfort… (see more)unately, as nature is capricious, observational data can never be fully explained by deterministic models in practice. Observation and process noise need to be added to adapt deterministic models to behave stochastically, such that they are capable of explaining and extrapolating from noisy data. We investigate and address computational inefficiencies that arise from adding process noise to deterministic simulators that fail to return for certain inputs; a property we describe as "brittle." We show how to train a conditional normalizing flow to propose perturbations such that the simulator succeeds with high probability, increasing computational efficiency.
We present a distributional approach to theoretical analyses of reinforcement learning algorithms for constant step-sizes. We demonstrate it… (see more)s effectiveness by presenting simple and unified proofs of convergence for a variety of commonly-used methods. We show that value-based methods such as TD(
The goal of the TREC Fair Ranking track was to develop a benchmark for evaluating retrieval systems in terms of fairness to different conten… (see more)t providers in addition to classic notions of relevance. As part of the benchmark, we defined standardized fairness metrics with evaluation protocols and released a dataset for the fair ranking problem. The 2019 task focused on reranking academic paper abstracts given a query. The objective was to fairly represent relevant authors from several groups that were unknown at the system submission time. Thus, the track emphasized the development of systems which have robust performance across a variety of group definitions. Participants were provided with querylog data (queries, documents, and relevance) from Semantic Scholar. This paper presents an overview of the track, including the task definition, descriptions of the data and the annotation process, as well as a comparison of the performance of submitted systems.
Antidepressants increase the risk of falls and fracture in older adults. However, risk estimates vary considerably even in comparable popula… (see more)tions, limiting the usefulness of current evidence for clinical decision making. Our aim was to apply a common protocol to cohorts of older antidepressant users in multiple jurisdictions to estimate fracture risk associated with different antidepressant classes, drugs, doses, and potential treatment indications.
2020-03-17
Journal of the American Geriatrics Society (published)