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Predicting COVID-19 severity is difficult, and the biological pathways involved are not fully understood. To approach this problem, we measu… (see more)red 4701 circulating human protein abundances in two independent cohorts totaling 986 individuals. We then trained prediction models including protein abundances and clinical risk factors to predict COVID-19 severity in 417 subjects and tested these models in a separate cohort of 569 individuals. For severe COVID-19, a baseline model including age and sex provided an area under the receiver operator curve (AUC) of 65% in the test cohort. Selecting 92 proteins from the 4701 unique protein abundances improved the AUC to 88% in the training cohort, which remained relatively stable in the testing cohort at 86%, suggesting good generalizability. Proteins selected from different COVID-19 severity were enriched for cytokine and cytokine receptors, but more than half of the enriched pathways were not immune-related. Taken together, these findings suggest that circulating proteins measured at early stages of disease progression are reasonably accurate predictors of COVID-19 severity. Further research is needed to understand how to incorporate protein measurement into clinical care.
Predicting COVID-19 severity is difficult, and the biological pathways involved are not fully understood. To approach this problem, we measu… (see more)red 4,701 circulating human protein abundances in two independent cohorts totaling 986 individuals. We then trained prediction models including protein abundances and clinical risk factors to predict adverse COVID-19 outcomes in 417 subjects and tested these models in a separate cohort of 569 individuals. For severe COVID-19, a baseline model including age and sex provided an area under the receiver operator curve (AUC) of 65% in the test cohort. Selecting 92 proteins from the 4,701 unique protein abundances improved the AUC to 88% in the training cohort, which remained relatively stable in the testing cohort at 86%, suggesting good generalizability. Proteins selected from different adverse COVID-19 outcomes were enriched for cytokine and cytokine receptors, but more than half of the enriched pathways were not immune-related. Taken together, these findings suggest that circulating proteins measured at early stages of disease progression are reasonably accurate predictors of adverse COVID-19 outcomes. Further research is needed to understand how to incorporate protein measurement into clinical care.
Adversarial Imitation Learning alternates between learning a discriminator -- which tells apart expert's demonstrations from generated ones … (see more)-- and a generator's policy to produce trajectories that can fool this discriminator. This alternated optimization is known to be delicate in practice since it compounds unstable adversarial training with brittle and sample-inefficient reinforcement learning. We propose to remove the burden of the policy optimization steps by leveraging a novel discriminator formulation. Specifically, our discriminator is explicitly conditioned on two policies: the one from the previous generator's iteration and a learnable policy. When optimized, this discriminator directly learns the optimal generator's policy. Consequently, our discriminator's update solves the generator's optimization problem for free: learning a policy that imitates the expert does not require an additional optimization loop. This formulation effectively cuts by half the implementation and computational burden of Adversarial Imitation Learning algorithms by removing the Reinforcement Learning phase altogether. We show on a variety of tasks that our simpler approach is competitive to prevalent Imitation Learning methods.
2019-12-31
Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 33 (NeurIPS 2020) (published)
