Tristan Deleu

Causal Discovery in Astrophysics: Unraveling Supermassive Black Hole and Galaxy Coevolution

Zehao Jin

Mario Pasquato

Benjamin L. Davis

Laurence Perreault-Levasseur

Yu Luo

Changhyun Cho

Pablo Lemos

Xi Kang

Andrea Valerio Maccio

Yashar Hezaveh

Correlation does not imply causation, but patterns of statistical association between variables can be exploited to infer a causal structure… (see more) (even with purely observational data) with the burgeoning field of causal discovery. As a purely observational science, astrophysics has much to gain by exploiting these new methods. The supermassive black hole (SMBH)--galaxy interaction has long been constrained by observed scaling relations, that is low-scatter correlations between variables such as SMBH mass and the central velocity dispersion of stars in a host galaxy's bulge. This study, using advanced causal discovery techniques and an up-to-date dataset, reveals a causal link between galaxy properties and dynamically-measured SMBH masses. We apply a score-based Bayesian framework to compute the exact conditional probabilities of every causal structure that could possibly describe our galaxy sample. With the exact posterior distribution, we determine the most likely causal structures and notice a probable causal reversal when separating galaxies by morphology. In elliptical galaxies, bulge properties (built from major mergers) tend to influence SMBH growth, while in spiral galaxies, SMBHs are seen to affect host galaxy properties, potentially through feedback in gas-rich environments. For spiral galaxies, SMBHs progressively quench star formation, whereas in elliptical galaxies, quenching is complete, and the causal connection has reversed. Our findings support theoretical models of hierarchical assembly of galaxies and active galactic nuclei feedback regulating galaxy evolution. Our study suggests the potentiality for further exploration of causal links in astrophysical and cosmological scaling relations, as well as any other observational science.

2025-01-27

The Astrophysical Journal (published)

Discrete Probabilistic Inference as Control in Multi-path Environments

We consider the problem of sampling from a discrete and structured distribution as a sequential decision problem, where the objective is to … (see more)find a stochastic policy such that objects are sampled at the end of this sequential process proportionally to some predefined reward. While we could use maximum entropy Reinforcement Learning (MaxEnt RL) to solve this problem for some distributions, it has been shown that in general, the distribution over states induced by the optimal policy may be biased in cases where there are multiple ways to generate the same object. To address this issue, Generative Flow Networks (GFlowNets) learn a stochastic policy that samples objects proportionally to their reward by approximately enforcing a conservation of flows across the whole Markov Decision Process (MDP). In this paper, we extend recent methods correcting the reward in order to guarantee that the marginal distribution induced by the optimal MaxEnt RL policy is proportional to the original reward, regardless of the structure of the underlying MDP. We also prove that some flow-matching objectives found in the GFlowNet literature are in fact equivalent to well-established MaxEnt RL algorithms with a corrected reward. Finally, we study empirically the performance of multiple MaxEnt RL and GFlowNet algorithms on multiple problems involving sampling from discrete distributions.

2024-04-25

auai.org/UAI/2024/Conference (poster)

proceedings.mlr.press

Joint Bayesian Inference of Graphical Structure and Parameters with a Single Generative Flow Network

Mizu Nishikawa-Toomey

Jithendaraa Subramanian

Nikolay Malkin

Laurent Charlin

Generative Flow Networks (GFlowNets), a class of generative models over discrete and structured sample spaces, have been previously applied … (see more)to the problem of inferring the marginal posterior distribution over the directed acyclic graph (DAG) of a Bayesian Network, given a dataset of observations. Based on recent advances extending this framework to non-discrete sample spaces, we propose in this paper to approximate the joint posterior over not only the structure of a Bayesian Network, but also the parameters of its conditional probability distributions. We use a single GFlowNet whose sampling policy follows a two-phase process: the DAG is first generated sequentially one edge at a time, and then the corresponding parameters are picked once the full structure is known. Since the parameters are included in the posterior distribution, this leaves more flexibility for the local probability models of the Bayesian Network, making our approach applicable even to non-linear models parametrized by neural networks. We show that our method, called JSP-GFN, offers an accurate approximation of the joint posterior, while comparing favorably against existing methods on both simulated and real data.

2023-09-20

NeurIPS.cc/2023/Conference (poster)

Generative Flow Networks: a Markov Chain Perspective

2023-07-03

ArXiv (preprint)

The Effect of Diversity in Meta-Learning

Ramnath Kumar

Recent studies show that task distribution plays a vital role in the meta-learner's performance. Conventional wisdom is that task diversity … (see more)should improve the performance of meta-learning. In this work, we find evidence to the contrary; (i) our experiments draw into question the efficacy of our learned models: similar manifolds can be learned with a subset of the data (lower task diversity). This finding questions the advantage of providing more data to the model, and (ii) adding diversity to the task distribution (higher task diversity) sometimes hinders the model and does not lead to a significant improvement in performance as previously believed. To strengthen our findings, we provide both empirical and theoretical evidence.

2023-06-25

Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (published)

BatchGFN: Generative Flow Networks for Batch Active Learning

Shreshth A Malik

Salem Lahlou

Andrew Jesson

Moksh J. Jain

Nikolay Malkin

Yarin Gal

We introduce BatchGFN—a novel approach for pool-based active learning that uses generative flow networks to sample sets of data points pro… (see more)portional to a batch reward. With an appropriate reward function to quantify the utility of acquiring a batch, such as the joint mutual information between the batch and the model parameters, BatchGFN is able to construct highly informative batches for active learning in a principled way. We show our approach enables sampling near-optimal utility batches at inference time with a single forward pass per point in the batch in toy regression problems. This alleviates the computational complexity of batch-aware algorithms and removes the need for greedy approximations to find maximizers for the batch reward. We also present early results for amortizing training across acquisition steps, which will enable scaling to real-world tasks.

2023-06-18

ICML.cc/2023/Workshop/SPIGM (poster)

Benchmarking Bayesian Causal Discovery Methods for Downstream Treatment Effect Estimation

2023-06-18

ICML.cc/2023/Workshop/SPIGM (poster)

GFlowNets and Variational Inference

This paper builds bridges between two families of probabilistic algorithms: (hierarchical) variational inference (VI), which is typically us… (see more)ed to model distributions over continuous spaces, and generative flow networks (GFlowNets), which have been used for distributions over discrete structures such as graphs. We demonstrate that, in certain cases, VI algorithms are equivalent to special cases of GFlowNets in the sense of equality of expected gradients of their learning objectives. We then point out the differences between the two families and show how these differences emerge experimentally. Notably, GFlowNets, which borrow ideas from reinforcement learning, are more amenable than VI to off-policy training without the cost of high gradient variance induced by importance sampling. We argue that this property of GFlowNets can provide advantages for capturing diversity in multimodal target distributions.

2023-01-31

ICLR.cc/2023/Conference (poster)

GFlowNets for AI-Driven Scientific Discovery

Moksh Jain

Jason Hartford

Cheng-Hao Liu

Alex Hernandez-Garcia

Tackling the most pressing problems for humanity, such as the climate crisis and the threat of global pandemics, requires accelerating the p… (see more)ace of scientific discovery. While science has traditionally relied on trial and error and even serendipity to a large extent, the last few decades have seen a surge of data-driven scientific discoveries. However, in order to truly leverage large-scale data sets and high-throughput experimental setups, machine learning methods will need to be further improved and better integrated in the scientific discovery pipeline. A key challenge for current machine learning methods in this context is the efficient exploration of very large search spaces, which requires techniques for estimating reducible (epistemic) uncertainty and generating sets of diverse and informative experiments to perform. This motivated a new probabilistic machine learning framework called GFlowNets, which can be applied in the modeling, hypotheses generation and experimental design stages of the experimental science loop. GFlowNets learn to sample from a distribution given indirectly by a reward function corresponding to an unnormalized probability, which enables sampling diverse, high-reward candidates. GFlowNets can also be used to form efficient and amortized Bayesian posterior estimators for causal models conditioned on the already acquired experimental data. Having such posterior models can then provide estimators of epistemic uncertainty and information gain that can drive an experimental design policy. Altogether, here we will argue that GFlowNets can become a valuable tool for AI-driven scientific discovery, especially in scenarios of very large candidate spaces where we have access to cheap but inaccurate measurements or to expensive but accurate measurements. This is a common setting in the context of drug and material discovery, which we use as examples throughout the paper.

2022-12-31

Digital Discovery (published)

Synergies between Disentanglement and Sparsity: Generalization and Identifiability in Multi-Task Learning

Although disentangled representations are often said to be beneficial for downstream tasks, current empirical and theoretical understanding … (see more)is limited. In this work, we provide evidence that disentangled representations coupled with sparse base-predictors improve generalization. In the context of multi-task learning, we prove a new identifiability result that provides conditions under which maximally sparse base-predictors yield disentangled representations. Motivated by this theoretical result, we propose a practical approach to learn disentangled representations based on a sparsity-promoting bi-level optimization problem. Finally, we explore a meta-learning version of this algorithm based on group Lasso multiclass SVM base-predictors, for which we derive a tractable dual formulation. It obtains competitive results on standard few-shot classification benchmarks, while each task is using only a fraction of the learned representations.

2022-12-31

ICML (published)

proceedings.mlr.press

A Theory of Continuous Generative Flow Networks

Alex Hernandez-Garcia

Lena Nehale Ezzine

Nikolay Malkin

Generative flow networks (GFlowNets) are amortized variational inference algorithms that are trained to sample from unnormalized target dist… (see more)ributions over compositional objects. A key limitation of GFlowNets until this time has been that they are restricted to discrete spaces. We present a theory for generalized GFlowNets, which encompasses both existing discrete GFlowNets and ones with continuous or hybrid state spaces, and perform experiments with two goals in mind. First, we illustrate critical points of the theory and the importance of various assumptions. Second, we empirically demonstrate how observations about discrete GFlowNets transfer to the continuous case and show strong results compared to non-GFlowNet baselines on several previously studied tasks. This work greatly widens the perspectives for the application of GFlowNets in probabilistic inference and various modeling settings.

2022-12-31

ICML (published)