Tristan Deleu

Yu Luo

Changhyun Cho

Xi 熙 Kang 康

Andrea Maccio

2025-01-28

The Astrophysical Journal (published)

Causal Discovery in Astrophysics: Unraveling Supermassive Black Hole and Galaxy Coevolution

Zehao Jin

Mario Pasquato

Benjamin L. Davis

Yu Luo

Changhyun Cho

Xi Kang

Andrea Maccio

Correlation does not imply causation, but patterns of statistical association between variables can be exploited to infer a causal structure… (see more) (even with purely observational data) with the burgeoning field of causal discovery. As a purely observational science, astrophysics has much to gain by exploiting these new methods. The supermassive black hole (SMBH)--galaxy interaction has long been constrained by observed scaling relations, that is low-scatter correlations between variables such as SMBH mass and the central velocity dispersion of stars in a host galaxy's bulge. This study, using advanced causal discovery techniques and an up-to-date dataset, reveals a causal link between galaxy properties and dynamically-measured SMBH masses. We apply a score-based Bayesian framework to compute the exact conditional probabilities of every causal structure that could possibly describe our galaxy sample. With the exact posterior distribution, we determine the most likely causal structures and notice a probable causal reversal when separating galaxies by morphology. In elliptical galaxies, bulge properties (built from major mergers) tend to influence SMBH growth, while in spiral galaxies, SMBHs are seen to affect host galaxy properties, potentially through feedback in gas-rich environments. For spiral galaxies, SMBHs progressively quench star formation, whereas in elliptical galaxies, quenching is complete, and the causal connection has reversed. Our findings support theoretical models of hierarchical assembly of galaxies and active galactic nuclei feedback regulating galaxy evolution. Our study suggests the potentiality for further exploration of causal links in astrophysical and cosmological scaling relations, as well as any other observational science.

2024-10-01

ArXiv (preprint)

Causal Discovery in Astrophysics: Unraveling Supermassive Black Hole and Galaxy Coevolution

Zehao Jin

Mario Pasquato

Benjamin L. Davis

Yu Luo

Changhyun Cho

Xi 熙 Kang 康

Andrea Maccio

Correlation does not imply causation, but patterns of statistical association between variables can be exploited to infer a causal structure… (see more) (even with purely observational data) with the burgeoning field of causal discovery. As a purely observational science, astrophysics has much to gain by exploiting these new methods. The supermassive black hole (SMBH)–galaxy interaction has long been constrained by observed scaling relations, which is low-scatter correlations between variables such as SMBH mass and the central velocity dispersion of stars in a host galaxy's bulge. This study, using advanced causal discovery techniques and an up-to-date data set, reveals a causal link between galaxy properties and dynamically measured SMBH masses. We apply a score-based Bayesian framework to compute the exact conditional probabilities of every causal structure that could possibly describe our galaxy sample. With the exact posterior distribution, we determine the most likely causal structures and notice a probable causal reversal when separating galaxies by morphology. In elliptical galaxies, bulge properties (built from major mergers) tend to influence SMBH growth, while, in spiral galaxies, SMBHs are seen to affect host galaxy properties, potentially through feedback in gas-rich environments. For spiral galaxies, SMBHs progressively quench star formation, whereas, in elliptical galaxies, quenching is complete, and the causal connection has reversed. Our findings support theoretical models of hierarchical assembly of galaxies and active galactic nuclei feedback regulating galaxy evolution. Our study suggests the potentiality for further exploration of causal links in astrophysical and cosmological scaling relations, as well as any other observational science.

2024-10-01

ArXiv (preprint)

Causal Discovery in Astrophysics: Unraveling Supermassive Black Hole and Galaxy Coevolution

Zehao Jin

Mario Pasquato

Benjamin L. Davis

Yu Luo

Changhyun Cho

Xi 熙 Kang 康

Andrea Maccio

Correlation does not imply causation, but patterns of statistical association between variables can be exploited to infer a causal structure… (see more) (even with purely observational data) with the burgeoning field of causal discovery. As a purely observational science, astrophysics has much to gain by exploiting these new methods. The supermassive black hole (SMBH)–galaxy interaction has long been constrained by observed scaling relations, which is low-scatter correlations between variables such as SMBH mass and the central velocity dispersion of stars in a host galaxy's bulge. This study, using advanced causal discovery techniques and an up-to-date data set, reveals a causal link between galaxy properties and dynamically measured SMBH masses. We apply a score-based Bayesian framework to compute the exact conditional probabilities of every causal structure that could possibly describe our galaxy sample. With the exact posterior distribution, we determine the most likely causal structures and notice a probable causal reversal when separating galaxies by morphology. In elliptical galaxies, bulge properties (built from major mergers) tend to influence SMBH growth, while, in spiral galaxies, SMBHs are seen to affect host galaxy properties, potentially through feedback in gas-rich environments. For spiral galaxies, SMBHs progressively quench star formation, whereas, in elliptical galaxies, quenching is complete, and the causal connection has reversed. Our findings support theoretical models of hierarchical assembly of galaxies and active galactic nuclei feedback regulating galaxy evolution. Our study suggests the potentiality for further exploration of causal links in astrophysical and cosmological scaling relations, as well as any other observational science.

2024-10-01

ArXiv (preprint)

Discrete Probabilistic Inference as Control in Multi-path Environments

We consider the problem of sampling from a discrete and structured distribution as a sequential decision problem, where the objective is to … (see more)find a stochastic policy such that objects are sampled at the end of this sequential process proportionally to some predefined reward. While we could use maximum entropy Reinforcement Learning (MaxEnt RL) to solve this problem for some distributions, it has been shown that in general, the distribution over states induced by the optimal policy may be biased in cases where there are multiple ways to generate the same object. To address this issue, Generative Flow Networks (GFlowNets) learn a stochastic policy that samples objects proportionally to their reward by approximately enforcing a conservation of flows across the whole Markov Decision Process (MDP). In this paper, we extend recent methods correcting the reward in order to guarantee that the marginal distribution induced by the optimal MaxEnt RL policy is proportional to the original reward, regardless of the structure of the underlying MDP. We also prove that some flow-matching objectives found in the GFlowNet literature are in fact equivalent to well-established MaxEnt RL algorithms with a corrected reward. Finally, we study empirically the performance of multiple MaxEnt RL and GFlowNet algorithms on multiple problems involving sampling from discrete distributions.

2024-04-26

auai.org/UAI/2024/Conference (poster)

Joint Bayesian Inference of Graphical Structure and Parameters with a Single Generative Flow Network

Mizu Nishikawa-Toomey

Jithendaraa Subramanian

Nikolay Malkin

Laurent Charlin

Generative Flow Networks (GFlowNets), a class of generative models over discrete and structured sample spaces, have been previously applied … (see more)to the problem of inferring the marginal posterior distribution over the directed acyclic graph (DAG) of a Bayesian Network, given a dataset of observations. Based on recent advances extending this framework to non-discrete sample spaces, we propose in this paper to approximate the joint posterior over not only the structure of a Bayesian Network, but also the parameters of its conditional probability distributions. We use a single GFlowNet whose sampling policy follows a two-phase process: the DAG is first generated sequentially one edge at a time, and then the corresponding parameters are picked once the full structure is known. Since the parameters are included in the posterior distribution, this leaves more flexibility for the local probability models of the Bayesian Network, making our approach applicable even to non-linear models parametrized by neural networks. We show that our method, called JSP-GFN, offers an accurate approximation of the joint posterior, while comparing favorably against existing methods on both simulated and real data.

Benchmarking Bayesian Causal Discovery Methods for Downstream Treatment Effect Estimation

The practical utility of causality in decision-making is widespread and brought about by the intertwining of causal discovery and causal inf… (see more)erence. Nevertheless, a notable gap exists in the evaluation of causal discovery methods, where insufficient emphasis is placed on downstream inference. To address this gap, we evaluate seven established baseline causal discovery methods including a newly proposed method based on GFlowNets, on the downstream task of treatment effect estimation. Through the implementation of a distribution-level evaluation, we offer valuable and unique insights into the efficacy of these causal discovery methods for treatment effect estimation, considering both synthetic and real-world scenarios, as well as low-data scenarios. The results of our study demonstrate that some of the algorithms studied are able to effectively capture a wide range of useful and diverse ATE modes, while some tend to learn many low-probability modes which impacts the (unrelaxed) recall and precision.

2023-07-11

ArXiv (preprint)

Generative Flow Networks: a Markov Chain Perspective

2023-07-04

ArXiv (preprint)

The Effect of diversity in Meta-Learning

Ramnath Kumar

Few-shot learning aims to learn representations that can tackle novel tasks given a small number of examples. Recent studies show that task … (see more)distribution plays a vital role in the performance of the model. Conventional wisdom is that task diversity should improve the performance of meta-learning. In this work, we find evidence to the contrary; we study different task distributions on a myriad of models and datasets to evaluate the effect of task diversity on meta-learning algorithms. For this experiment, we train on multiple datasets, and with three broad classes of meta-learning models - Metric-based (i.e., Protonet, Matching Networks), Optimization-based (i.e., MAML, Reptile, and MetaOptNet), and Bayesian meta-learning models (i.e., CNAPs). Our experiments demonstrate that the effect of task diversity on all these algorithms follows a similar trend, and task diversity does not seem to offer any benefits to the learning of the model. Furthermore, we also demonstrate that even a handful of tasks, repeated over multiple batches, would be sufficient to achieve a performance similar to uniform sampling and draws into question the need for additional tasks to create better models.

2023-06-26

Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (published)

BatchGFN: Generative Flow Networks for Batch Active Learning

Shreshth A Malik

Salem Lahlou

Andrew Jesson

Moksh J. Jain

Nikolay Malkin

Yarin Gal

We introduce BatchGFN—a novel approach for pool-based active learning that uses generative flow networks to sample sets of data points pro… (see more)portional to a batch reward. With an appropriate reward function to quantify the utility of acquiring a batch, such as the joint mutual information between the batch and the model parameters, BatchGFN is able to construct highly informative batches for active learning in a principled way. We show our approach enables sampling near-optimal utility batches at inference time with a single forward pass per point in the batch in toy regression problems. This alleviates the computational complexity of batch-aware algorithms and removes the need for greedy approximations to find maximizers for the batch reward. We also present early results for amortizing training across acquisition steps, which will enable scaling to real-world tasks.

2023-06-19

ICML.cc/2023/Workshop/SPIGM (poster)

Benchmarking Bayesian Causal Discovery Methods for Downstream Treatment Effect Estimation

2023-06-19

ICML.cc/2023/Workshop/SPIGM (poster)

GFlowNets and variational inference

Nikolay Malkin

Salem Lahlou

Xu Ji

Edward J Hu

Katie E Everett

Dinghuai Zhang

This paper builds bridges between two families of probabilistic algorithms: (hierarchical) variational inference (VI), which is typically us… (see more)ed to model distributions over continuous spaces, and generative flow networks (GFlowNets), which have been used for distributions over discrete structures such as graphs. We demonstrate that, in certain cases, VI algorithms are equivalent to special cases of GFlowNets in the sense of equality of expected gradients of their learning objectives. We then point out the differences between the two families and show how these differences emerge experimentally. Notably, GFlowNets, which borrow ideas from reinforcement learning, are more amenable than VI to off-policy training without the cost of high gradient variance induced by importance sampling. We argue that this property of GFlowNets can provide advantages for capturing diversity in multimodal target distributions.

2023-02-01

ICLR.cc/2023/Conference (poster)