Nicolas Chapados

Associate Industry Member

Adjunct Professor, Polytechnique Montréal, Department of Applied Mathematics

Vice-President, Research, ServiceNow Research

Biography

Nicolas Chapados is VP of research at ServiceNow Inc. He holds an engineering degree from McGill University and a PhD in computer science from Université de Montréal. In 2021, while still writing his thesis, Chapados and his advisor Yoshua Bengio co-founded ApSTAT Technologies, a machine learning technology transfer firm that applies cutting-edge academic research ideas to areas like insurance risk evaluation, supply chain planning, business forecasting, biotechnology and hedge fund management. He then went on to co-found a number of spin-off companies: Imagia, which focuses on the AI analysis of medical images to detect and quantify cancer early; Element AI, which was acquired by ServiceNow in January 2021; and Chapados Couture Capital, a quantitative asset manager. Chapados’ research interests include time series modelling, natural language processing and optimal decision-making. He holds the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation.

Publications

N-BEATS: Neural basis expansion analysis for interpretable time series forecasting

Boris Oreshkin

Dmitri Carpov

Nicolas Chapados

Yoshua Bengio

We focus on solving the univariate times series point forecasting problem using deep learning. We propose a deep neural architecture based o… (see more)n backward and forward residual links and a very deep stack of fully-connected layers. The architecture has a number of desirable properties, being interpretable, applicable without modification to a wide array of target domains, and fast to train. We test the proposed architecture on several well-known datasets, including M3, M4 and TOURISM competition datasets containing time series from diverse domains. We demonstrate state-of-the-art performance for two configurations of N-BEATS for all the datasets, improving forecast accuracy by 11% over a statistical benchmark and by 3% over last year's winner of the M4 competition, a domain-adjusted hand-crafted hybrid between neural network and statistical time series models. The first configuration of our model does not employ any time-series-specific components and its performance on heterogeneous datasets strongly suggests that, contrarily to received wisdom, deep learning primitives such as residual blocks are by themselves sufficient to solve a wide range of forecasting problems. Finally, we demonstrate how the proposed architecture can be augmented to provide outputs that are interpretable without considerable loss in accuracy.

2019-05-24

ArXiv (preprint)

arxiv.org