Tristan Deleu

Andrew Robert Williams

The COVID-19 pandemic has spread rapidly worldwide, overwhelming manual contact tracing in many countries and resulting in widespread lockdo… (see more)wns for emergency containment. Large-scale digital contact tracing (DCT) has emerged as a potential solution to resume economic and social activity while minimizing spread of the virus. Various DCT methods have been proposed, each making trade-offs between privacy, mobility restrictions, and public health. The most common approach, binary contact tracing (BCT), models infection as a binary event, informed only by an individual's test results, with corresponding binary recommendations that either all or none of the individual's contacts quarantine. BCT ignores the inherent uncertainty in contacts and the infection process, which could be used to tailor messaging to high-risk individuals, and prompt proactive testing or earlier warnings. It also does not make use of observations such as symptoms or pre-existing medical conditions, which could be used to make more accurate infectiousness predictions. In this paper, we use a recently-proposed COVID-19 epidemiological simulator to develop and test methods that can be deployed to a smartphone to locally and proactively predict an individual's infectiousness (risk of infecting others) based on their contact history and other information, while respecting strong privacy constraints. Predictions are used to provide personalized recommendations to the individual via an app, as well as to send anonymized messages to the individual's contacts, who use this information to better predict their own infectiousness, an approach we call proactive contact tracing (PCT). We find a deep-learning based PCT method which improves over BCT for equivalent average mobility, suggesting PCT could help in safe re-opening and second-wave prevention.

2021-01-12

ICLR.cc/2021/Conference (spotlight)

openreview.net

COVI-AgentSim: an Agent-based Model for Evaluating Methods of Digital Contact Tracing

Prateek Gupta

Nasim Rahaman

Hannah Alsdurf

Abhinav Sharma

Nanor Minoyan

Soren Harnois-Leblanc

Victor Schmidt

Pierre-Luc St-Charles

Andrew Robert Williams

Akshay Patel

Meng Qu

Olexa Bilaniuk

gaetan caron

Pierre Luc Carrier

satya ortiz gagne

Marc-Andre Rousseau

David Buckeridge … (see 9 more)

Joumana Ghosn

Yang Zhang

Bernhard Schölkopf

Chris Pal

Joanna Merckx

Eilif Benjamin Muller

2020-10-02

OpenReview.net/Anonymous_Preprint (unknown)

openreview.net

COVI White Paper

Hannah Alsdurf

Prateek Gupta

Daphne Ippolito

Richard Janda

Max Jarvie

Tyler J. Kolody

Sekoul Krastev

Robert Obryk

Dan Pilat

Meng Qu

Nasim Rahaman

Jean-franois Rousseau

Abhinav Sharma

Brooke Struck … (see 3 more)

Yun William Yu

2020-05-18

ArXiv (preprint)

COVI White Paper

Hannah Alsdurf

Prateek Gupta

Daphne Ippolito

Richard Janda

Max Jarvie

Tyler J. Kolody

Sekoul Krastev

Robert Obryk

Dan Pilat

Meng Qu

Nasim Rahaman

Jean-franois Rousseau

Abhinav Sharma

Brooke Struck … (see 3 more)

Yun William Yu

2020-05-18

ArXiv (preprint)

COVI White Paper

Hannah Alsdurf

Prateek Gupta

Daphne Ippolito

Richard Janda

Max Jarvie

Tyler J. Kolody

Sekoul Krastev

Robert Obryk

Dan Pilat

Meng Qu

Nasim Rahaman

Jean-franois Rousseau

Abhinav Sharma

Brooke Struck … (see 3 more)

Yun William Yu

The SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) pandemic has caused significant strain on public health institutions around the world. Contact tracing is an essen… (see more)tial tool to change the course of the Covid-19 pandemic. Manual contact tracing of Covid-19 cases has significant challenges that limit the ability of public health authorities to minimize community infections. Personalized peer-to-peer contact tracing through the use of mobile apps has the potential to shift the paradigm. Some countries have deployed centralized tracking systems, but more privacy-protecting decentralized systems offer much of the same benefit without concentrating data in the hands of a state authority or for-profit corporations. Machine learning methods can circumvent some of the limitations of standard digital tracing by incorporating many clues and their uncertainty into a more graded and precise estimation of infection risk. The estimated risk can provide early risk awareness, personalized recommendations and relevant information to the user. Finally, non-identifying risk data can inform epidemiological models trained jointly with the machine learning predictor. These models can provide statistical evidence for the importance of factors involved in disease transmission. They can also be used to monitor, evaluate and optimize health policy and (de)confinement scenarios according to medical and economic productivity indicators. However, such a strategy based on mobile apps and machine learning should proactively mitigate potential ethical and privacy risks, which could have substantial impacts on society (not only impacts on health but also impacts such as stigmatization and abuse of personal data). Here, we present an overview of the rationale, design, ethical considerations and privacy strategy of `COVI,' a Covid-19 public peer-to-peer contact tracing and risk awareness mobile application developed in Canada.

2020-05-18

ArXiv (preprint)

Curriculum in Gradient-Based Meta-Reinforcement Learning

Bhairav Mehta

Sharath Chandra Raparthy

Chris Pal

Liam Paull

Gradient-based meta-learners such as Model-Agnostic Meta-Learning (MAML) have shown strong few-shot performance in supervised and reinforcem… (see more)ent learning settings. However, specifically in the case of meta-reinforcement learning (meta-RL), we can show that gradient-based meta-learners are sensitive to task distributions. With the wrong curriculum, agents suffer the effects of meta-overfitting, shallow adaptation, and adaptation instability. In this work, we begin by highlighting intriguing failure cases of gradient-based meta-RL and show that task distributions can wildly affect algorithmic outputs, stability, and performance. To address this problem, we leverage insights from recent literature on domain randomization and propose meta Active Domain Randomization (meta-ADR), which learns a curriculum of tasks for gradient-based meta-RL in a similar as ADR does for sim2real transfer. We show that this approach induces more stable policies on a variety of simulated locomotion and navigation tasks. We assess in- and out-of-distribution generalization and find that the learned task distributions, even in an unstructured task space, greatly improve the adaptation performance of MAML. Finally, we motivate the need for better benchmarking in meta-RL that prioritizes \textit{generalization} over single-task adaption performance.

2020-02-19

ArXiv (preprint)

COVI White Paper-Version 1.1

Hannah Alsdurf

Prateek Gupta

Daphne Ippolito

Richard Janda

Max Jarvie

Tyler J. Kolody

Sekoul Krastev

Robert Obryk

Dan Pilat

Meng Qu

Nasim Rahaman

Jean-franois Rousseau

Abhinav Sharma

Brooke Struck … (see 3 more)

Yun William Yu

The SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) pandemic has resulted in significant strain on health care and public health institutions around the world. Contac… (see more)t tracing is an essential tool for public health officials and local communities to change the course of the Covid-19 pandemic. Standard manual contact tracing of people infected with Covid-19, while the current gold standard, has significant challenges that limit the ability of public health authorities to minimize community infections. Personalized peer-to-peer contact tracing through the use of mobile applications has the potential to shift the paradigm of Covid-19 community spread. Although some countries have deployed centralized tracking systems through either GPS or Bluetooth, more privacy-protecting decentralized systems offer much of the same benefit without concentrating data in the hands of a state authority or in for-profit corporations. Additionally, machine learning methods can be used to circumvent some of the limitations of standard digital tracing by incorporating many clues (including medical conditions, self-reported symptoms, and numerous encounters with people at different risk levels, for different durations and distances) and their uncertainty into a more graded and precise estimation of infection and contagion risk. The estimated risk can be used to provide early risk awareness, personalized recommendations and relevant information to the user and connect them to health services. Finally, the non-identifying data about these risks can inform detailed epidemiological models trained jointly with the machine learning predictor, and these models can provide statistical evidence for the interaction and importance of different factors involved in the transmission of the disease. They can also be used to monitor, evaluate and optimize different health policy and confinement/deconfinement scenarios according to medical and economic productivity indicators. However, such a strategy based on mobile apps and machine learning should proactively mitigate potential ethical and privacy risks, which could have substantial impacts on society (not only impacts on health but also impacts such as stigmatization and abuse of personal data). Here, we present an overview of the rationale, design, ethical considerations and privacy strategy of ‘COVI,’ a Covid-19 public peer-to-peer contact tracing and risk awareness mobile application developed in Canada. Addendum 2020-07-14: The government of Canada has declined to endorse COVI and will be promoting a different app for decentralized contact tracing. In the interest of preventing fragmentation of the app landscape, COVI will therefore not be deployed to end users. We are currently still in the process of finalizing the project, and plan to release our code and models for academic consumption and to make them accessible to other States should they wish to deploy an app based on or inspired by said code and models. University of Ottawa, Mila, Université de Montréal, The Alan Turing Institute, University of Oxford, University of Pennsylvania, McGill University, Borden Ladner Gervais LLP, The Decision Lab, HEC Montréal, Max Planck Institute, Libéo, University of Toronto. Corresponding author general: richard.janda@mcgill.ca Corresponding author for public health: abhinav.sharma@mcgill.ca Corresponding author for privacy: ywyu@math.toronto.edu Corresponding author for machine learning: yoshua.bengio@mila.quebec Corresponding author for user perspective: brooke@thedecisionlab.com Corresponding author for technical implementation: jean-francois.rousseau@libeo.com 1 ar X iv :2 00 5. 08 50 2v 2 [ cs .C R ] 2 7 Ju l 2 02 0

A Meta-Transfer Objective for Learning to Disentangle Causal Mechanisms

Nasim Rahaman

Nan Rosemary Ke

Sébastien Lachapelle

Olexa Bilaniuk

Anirudh Goyal

Chris Pal

We propose to meta-learn causal structures based on how fast a learner adapts to new distributions arising from sparse distributional change… (see more)s, e.g. due to interventions, actions of agents and other sources of non-stationarities. We show that under this assumption, the correct causal structural choices lead to faster adaptation to modified distributions because the changes are concentrated in one or just a few mechanisms when the learned knowledge is modularized appropriately. This leads to sparse expected gradients and a lower effective number of degrees of freedom needing to be relearned while adapting to the change. It motivates using the speed of adaptation to a modified distribution as a meta-learning objective. We demonstrate how this can be used to determine the cause-effect relationship between two observed variables. The distributional changes do not need to correspond to standard interventions (clamping a variable), and the learner has no direct knowledge of these interventions. We show that causal structures can be parameterized via continuous variables and learned end-to-end. We then explore how these ideas could be used to also learn an encoder that would map low-level observed variables to unobserved causal variables leading to faster adaptation out-of-distribution, learning a representation space where one can satisfy the assumptions of independent mechanisms and of small and sparse changes in these mechanisms due to actions and non-stationarities.

2020-01-01

ICLR (published)

openreview.net

Torchmeta: A Meta-Learning library for PyTorch

Tobias Würfl

Mandana Samiei

Joseph Paul Cohen

The constant introduction of standardized benchmarks in the literature has helped accelerating the recent advances in meta-learning research… (see more). They offer a way to get a fair comparison between different algorithms, and the wide range of datasets available allows full control over the complexity of this evaluation. However, for a large majority of code available online, the data pipeline is often specific to one dataset, and testing on another dataset requires significant rework. We introduce Torchmeta, a library built on top of PyTorch that enables seamless and consistent evaluation of meta-learning algorithms on multiple datasets, by providing data-loaders for most of the standard benchmarks in few-shot classification and regression, with a new meta-dataset abstraction. It also features some extensions for PyTorch to simplify the development of models compatible with meta-learning algorithms. The code is available here: this https URL

2019-09-14

ArXiv (preprint)

Learning Powerful Policies by Using Consistent Dynamics Model

Shagun Sodhani

Anirudh Goyal

Sergey Levine

Model-based Reinforcement Learning approaches have the promise of being sample efficient. Much of the progress in learning dynamics models i… (see more)n RL has been made by learning models via supervised learning. But traditional model-based approaches lead to `compounding errors' when the model is unrolled step by step. Essentially, the state transitions that the learner predicts (by unrolling the model for multiple steps) and the state transitions that the learner experiences (by acting in the environment) may not be consistent. There is enough evidence that humans build a model of the environment, not only by observing the environment but also by interacting with the environment. Interaction with the environment allows humans to carry out experiments: taking actions that help uncover true causal relationships which can be used for building better dynamics models. Analogously, we would expect such interactions to be helpful for a learning agent while learning to model the environment dynamics. In this paper, we build upon this intuition by using an auxiliary cost function to ensure consistency between what the agent observes (by acting in the real world) and what it imagines (by acting in the `learned' world). We consider several tasks - Mujoco based control tasks and Atari games - and show that the proposed approach helps to train powerful policies and better dynamics models.

2019-06-11

ArXiv (preprint)

The effects of negative adaptation in Model-Agnostic Meta-Learning

The capacity of meta-learning algorithms to quickly adapt to a variety of tasks, including ones they did not experience during meta-training… (see more), has been a key factor in the recent success of these methods on few-shot learning problems. This particular advantage of using meta-learning over standard supervised or reinforcement learning is only well founded under the assumption that the adaptation phase does improve the performance of our model on the task of interest. However, in the classical framework of meta-learning, this constraint is only mildly enforced, if not at all, and we only see an improvement on average over a distribution of tasks. In this paper, we show that the adaptation in an algorithm like MAML can significantly decrease the performance of an agent in a meta-reinforcement learning setting, even on a range of meta-training tasks.

2018-12-05

ArXiv (preprint)