Jean-François Godbout

Hao Yu

Tom Gibbs

Ethan Kosak-Hine

Andreea Musulan

Camille Thibault

Busra Tugce Gurbuz

The rise of AI-driven manipulation poses significant risks to societal trust and democratic processes. Yet, studying these effects in real-w… (see more)orld settings at scale is ethically and logistically impractical, highlighting a need for simulation tools that can model these dynamics in controlled settings to enable experimentation with possible defenses. We present a simulation environment designed to address this. We elaborate upon the Concordia framework that simulates offline, `real life' activity by adding online interactions to the simulation through social media with the integration of a Mastodon server. Through a variety of means we then improve simulation efficiency and information flow, and add a set of measurement tools, particularly longitudinal surveys of the agents' political positions. We demonstrate the simulator with a tailored example of how partisan manipulation of agents can affect election results.

2024-10-12

NeurIPS.cc/2024/Workshop/SafeGenAi (poster)

openreview.net

Simulation System Towards Solving Societal-Scale Manipulation

Maximilian Puelma Touzel

Sneheel Sarangi

Austin Welch

Gayatri K

Dan Zhao

Hao Yu

Tom Gibbs

Ethan Kosak-Hine

Andreea Musulan

Camille Thibault

Busra Tugce Gurbuz

The rise of AI-driven manipulation poses significant risks to societal trust and democratic processes. Yet, studying these effects in real-w… (see more)orld settings at scale is ethically and logistically impractical, highlighting a need for simulation tools that can model these dynamics in controlled settings to enable experimentation with possible defenses. We present a simulation environment designed to address this. We elaborate upon the Concordia framework that simulates offline, `real life' activity by adding online interactions to the simulation through social media with the integration of a Mastodon server. Through a variety of means we then improve simulation efficiency and information flow, and add a set of measurement tools, particularly longitudinal surveys of the agents' political positions. We demonstrate the simulator with a tailored example of how partisan manipulation of agents can affect election results.

2024-10-12

NeurIPS.cc/2024/Workshop/SafeGenAi (poster)

openreview.net

Web Retrieval Agents for Evidence-Based Misinformation Detection

Jacob-Junqi Tian

Hao Yu

Yury Orlovskiy

Tyler Vergho

Mauricio Rivera

Mayank Goel

2024-07-10

colmweb.org/COLM/2024/Conference (accepted)

openreview.net

Regional and Temporal Patterns of Partisan Polarization during the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States and Canada

Anne Imouza

Maximilian Puelma Touzel

C'ecile Amadoro

Gabrielle Desrosiers-Brisebois

Sacha Lévy

Public health measures were among the most polarizing topics debated online during the COVID-19 pandemic. Much of the discussion surrounded … (see more)specific events, such as when and which particular interventions came into practise. In this work, we develop and apply an approach to measure subnational and event-driven variation of partisan polarization and explore how these dynamics varied both across and within countries. We apply our measure to a dataset of over 50 million tweets posted during late 2020, a salient period of polarizing discourse in the early phase of the pandemic. In particular, we examine regional variations in both the United States and Canada, focusing on three specific health interventions: lockdowns, masks, and vaccines. We find that more politically conservative regions had higher levels of partisan polarization in both countries, especially in the US where a strong negative correlation exists between regional vaccination rates and degree of polarization in vaccine related discussions. We then analyze the timing, context, and profile of spikes in polarization, linking them to specific events discussed on social media across different regions in both countries. These typically last only a few days in duration, suggesting that online discussions reflect and could even drive changes in public opinion, which in the context of pandemic response impacts public health outcomes across different regions and over time.

2024-07-03

ArXiv (preprint)

Regional and Temporal Patterns of Partisan Polarization during the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States and Canada

Anne Imouza

Maximilian Puelma Touzel

C'ecile Amadoro

Gabrielle Desrosiers-Brisebois

Sacha Lévy

Public health measures were among the most polarizing topics debated online during the COVID-19 pandemic. Much of the discussion surrounded … (see more)specific events, such as when and which particular interventions came into practise. In this work, we develop and apply an approach to measure subnational and event-driven variation of partisan polarization and explore how these dynamics varied both across and within countries. We apply our measure to a dataset of over 50 million tweets posted during late 2020, a salient period of polarizing discourse in the early phase of the pandemic. In particular, we examine regional variations in both the United States and Canada, focusing on three specific health interventions: lockdowns, masks, and vaccines. We find that more politically conservative regions had higher levels of partisan polarization in both countries, especially in the US where a strong negative correlation exists between regional vaccination rates and degree of polarization in vaccine related discussions. We then analyze the timing, context, and profile of spikes in polarization, linking them to specific events discussed on social media across different regions in both countries. These typically last only a few days in duration, suggesting that online discussions reflect and could even drive changes in public opinion, which in the context of pandemic response impacts public health outcomes across different regions and over time.

2024-07-03

ArXiv (preprint)

Political Dynasties in Canada

Alex B. Rivard

Marc André Bodet

Using a unique dataset of legislators' electoral and biographical data in the Canadian provinces of Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, Nova Sco… (see more)tia and the federal parliament, this article analyses the extent to which family dynasties affected the career development of legislators since the mid-18th century. We find that the prevalence of dynasties was higher in provincial legislatures than it was in the federal parliament, that the number of dynasties in the Senate increased until the mid-20th century, and that the proportion of dynastic legislators at the subnational level was similar to the numbers seen in the United Kingdom during the early 19th century. Our results confirm the existence of a clear career benefit in terms of cabinet and senate appointments. In contrast to the American case and in line with the United Kingdom experience, we find no causal relationship between a legislator's tenure length and the presence of a dynasty.

2024-06-03

Government and Opposition (published)

A Comprehensive Dataset of Four Provincial Legislative Assembly Members

Alex B. Rivard

Marc André Bodet

Éric Montigny

This research note reports on a new dataset about legislators in four Canadian provinces since the establishment of their colonial assemblie… (see more)s in the eighteenth century. Over 7,000 legislators from Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia are included, with consolidated information drawn from multiple sources about parliamentarians’ years of birth and death, religion, electoral performance, kinship, and several other biographical indicators. We also illustrate the utility of such data with the help of a few descriptive examples drawn from the four provinces. We believe this consolidated dataset offers several opportunities for future research on representation, legislative activities and party politics.

2024-05-03

Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique (published)

Combining Confidence Elicitation and Sample-based Methods for Uncertainty Quantification in Misinformation Mitigation

Mauricio Rivera

Large Language Models have emerged as prime candidates to tackle misinformation mitigation. However, existing approaches struggle with hallu… (see more)cinations and overconfident predictions. We propose an uncertainty quantification framework that leverages both direct confidence elicitation and sampled-based consistency methods to provide better calibration for NLP misinformation mitigation solutions. We first investigate the calibration of sample-based consistency methods that exploit distinct features of consistency across sample sizes and stochastic levels. Next, we evaluate the performance and distributional shift of a robust numeric verbalization prompt across single vs. two-step confidence elicitation procedure. We also compare the performance of the same prompt with different versions of GPT and different numerical scales. Finally, we combine the sample-based consistency and verbalized methods to propose a hybrid framework that yields a better uncertainty estimation for GPT models. Overall, our work proposes novel uncertainty quantification methods that will improve the reliability of Large Language Models in misinformation mitigation applications.

2024-01-13

ArXiv (preprint)

Combining Confidence Elicitation and Sample-based Methods for Uncertainty Quantification in Misinformation Mitigation

Mauricio Rivera

2024-01-13

ArXiv (preprint)

Comparing GPT-4 and Open-Source Language Models in Misinformation Mitigation

Tyler Vergho

Recent large language models (LLMs) have been shown to be effective for misinformation detection. However, the choice of LLMs for experiment… (see more)s varies widely, leading to uncertain conclusions. In particular, GPT-4 is known to be strong in this domain, but it is closed source, potentially expensive, and can show instability between different versions. Meanwhile, alternative LLMs have given mixed results. In this work, we show that Zephyr-7b presents a consistently viable alternative, overcoming key limitations of commonly used approaches like Llama-2 and GPT-3.5. This provides the research community with a solid open-source option and shows open-source models are gradually catching up on this task. We then highlight how GPT-3.5 exhibits unstable performance, such that this very widely used model could provide misleading results in misinformation detection. Finally, we validate new tools including approaches to structured output and the latest version of GPT-4 (Turbo), showing they do not compromise performance, thus unlocking them for future research and potentially enabling more complex pipelines for misinformation mitigation.

2024-01-12

ArXiv (preprint)

Comparing GPT-4 and Open-Source Language Models in Misinformation Mitigation

Tyler Vergho

Recent large language models (LLMs) have been shown to be effective for misinformation detection. However, the choice of LLMs for experiment… (see more)s varies widely, leading to uncertain conclusions. In particular, GPT-4 is known to be strong in this domain, but it is closed source, potentially expensive, and can show instability between different versions. Meanwhile, alternative LLMs have given mixed results. In this work, we show that Zephyr-7b presents a consistently viable alternative, overcoming key limitations of commonly used approaches like Llama-2 and GPT-3.5. This provides the research community with a solid open-source option and shows open-source models are gradually catching up on this task. We then highlight how GPT-3.5 exhibits unstable performance, such that this very widely used model could provide misleading results in misinformation detection. Finally, we validate new tools including approaches to structured output and the latest version of GPT-4 (Turbo), showing they do not compromise performance, thus unlocking them for future research and potentially enabling more complex pipelines for misinformation mitigation.

2024-01-12

ArXiv (preprint)

Comparing GPT-4 and Open-Source Language Models in Misinformation Mitigation

Tyler Vergho

Recent large language models (LLMs) have been shown to be effective for misinformation detection. However, the choice of LLMs for experiment… (see more)s varies widely, leading to uncertain conclusions. In particular, GPT-4 is known to be strong in this domain, but it is closed source, potentially expensive, and can show instability between different versions. Meanwhile, alternative LLMs have given mixed results. In this work, we show that Zephyr-7b presents a consistently viable alternative, overcoming key limitations of commonly used approaches like Llama-2 and GPT-3.5. This provides the research community with a solid open-source option and shows open-source models are gradually catching up on this task. We then highlight how GPT-3.5 exhibits unstable performance, such that this very widely used model could provide misleading results in misinformation detection. Finally, we validate new tools including approaches to structured output and the latest version of GPT-4 (Turbo), showing they do not compromise performance, thus unlocking them for future research and potentially enabling more complex pipelines for misinformation mitigation.

2024-01-12

ArXiv (preprint)