Learn how to leverage generative AI to support and improve your productivity at work. The next cohort will take place online on April 28 and 30, 2026, in French.
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We investigate the robustness of Neural Ratio Estimators (NREs) and Neural Posterior Estimators (NPEs) to distributional shifts in the conte… (see more)xt of measuring the abundance of dark matter subhalos using strong gravitational lensing data. While these data-driven inference frameworks can be accurate on test data from the same distribution as the training sets, in real applications, it is expected that simulated training data and true observational data will differ in their distributions. We explore the behavior of a trained NRE and trained sequential NPEs to estimate the population-level parameters of dark matter subhalos from a large sample of images of strongly lensed galaxies with test data presenting distributional shifts within and beyond the bounds of the training distribution in the nuisance parameters (e.g., the background source morphology). While our results show that NREs and NPEs perform well when tested perfectly in distribution, they exhibit significant biases when confronted with slight deviations from the examples seen in the training distribution. This indicates the necessity for caution when applying NREs and NPEs to real astrophysical data, where high-dimensional underlying distributions are not perfectly known.
In recent years, there has been increasing interest in the field of astrophysics in applying Neural Ratio Estimators (NREs) to large-scale i… (see more)nference problems where both amortization and marginalization over a large number of nuisance parameters are needed.
Here, in order to assess the true potential of this method to produce unbiased inference on real data, we investigate the robustness of NREs to distribution shifts and model misspecification in the specific scientific application of the measurement of dark matter population-level parameters using strong gravitational lensing. We investigate the behaviour of a trained NRE for test data presenting distributional shifts inside the bounds of training, as well as out of distribution, both in the linear and non-linear parameters of this problem. While our results show that NREs perform when tested perfectly in distribution, we find that they exhibit significant biases and drawbacks when confronted with slight deviations from the examples seen in the training distribution. This indicates the necessity for caution when applying NREs to real astrophysical data, where underlying distributions are not perfectly known and models do not perfectly reconstruct the true underlying distributions.
