Nadhir Hassen

Lag-Llama: Towards Foundation Models for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting

Kashif Rasul

Arjun Ashok

Andrew Robert Williams

Arian Khorasani

George Adamopoulos

Rishika Bhagwatkar

Marin Biloš

Hena Ghonia

Nadhir Hassen

Anderson Schneider

Sahil Garg

Alexandre Drouin

Nicolas Chapados

Yuriy Nevmyvaka

Irina Rish

Over the past years, foundation models have caused a paradigm shift in machine learning due to their unprecedented capabilities for zero-sho… (see more)t and few-shot generalization. However, despite the success of foundation models in modalities such as natural language processing and computer vision, the development of foundation models for time series forecasting has lagged behind. We present Lag-Llama, a general-purpose foundation model for univariate probabilistic time series forecasting based on a decoder-only transformer architecture that uses lags as covariates. Lag-Llama is pretrained on a large corpus of diverse time series data from several domains, and demonstrates strong zero-shot generalization capabilities compared to a wide range of forecasting models on downstream datasets across domains. Moreover, when fine-tuned on relatively small fractions of such previously unseen datasets, Lag-Llama achieves state-of-the-art performance, outperforming prior deep learning approaches, emerging as the best general-purpose model on average. Lag-Llama serves as a strong contender to the current state-of-art in time series forecasting and paves the way for future advancements in foundation models tailored to time series data.

2023-10-31

NeurIPS.cc/2023/Workshop/R0-FoMo (poster)

doi.org

openreview.net

GFlowOut: Dropout with Generative Flow Networks

Dianbo Liu

Moksh Jain

Bonaventure F. P. Dossou

Qianli Shen

Chris C. Emezue

Bayesian Inference offers principled tools to tackle many critical problems with modern neural networks such as poor calibration and general… (see more)ization, and data inefficiency. However, scaling Bayesian inference to large architectures is challenging and requires restrictive approximations. Monte Carlo Dropout has been widely used as a relatively cheap way for approximate Inference and to estimate uncertainty with deep neural networks. Traditionally, the dropout mask is sampled independently from a fixed distribution. Recent works show that the dropout mask can be viewed as a latent variable, which can be inferred with variational inference. These methods face two important challenges: (a) the posterior distribution over masks can be highly multi-modal which can be difficult to approximate with standard variational inference and (b) it is not trivial to fully utilize sample-dependent information and correlation among dropout masks to improve posterior estimation. In this work, we propose GFlowOut to address these issues. GFlowOut leverages the recently proposed probabilistic framework of Generative Flow Networks (GFlowNets) to learn the posterior distribution over dropout masks. We empirically demonstrate that GFlowOut results in predictive distributions that generalize better to out-of-distribution data, and provide uncertainty estimates which lead to better performance in downstream tasks.

2022-12-31

ICML (published)

doi.org

proceedings.mlr.press

Approximate Bayesian Optimisation for Neural Networks

Nadhir Hassen

Irina Rish

2021-08-26

ArXiv (preprint)

arxiv.org