This program is designed to provide decision-makers, policymakers and professional working in policy with a foundational understanding of AI technology.
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The COVID-19 pandemic continues to pose a substantial threat to human lives and is likely to do so for years to come. Despite the availabili… (see more)ty of vaccines, searching for efficient small-molecule drugs that are widely available, including in low- and middle-income countries, is an ongoing challenge. In this work, we report the results of an open science community effort, the "Billion molecules against Covid-19 challenge", to identify small-molecule inhibitors against SARS-CoV-2 or relevant human receptors. Participating teams used a wide variety of computational methods to screen a minimum of 1 billion virtual molecules against 6 protein targets. Overall, 31 teams participated, and they suggested a total of 639,024 molecules, which were subsequently ranked to find 'consensus compounds'. The organizing team coordinated with various contract research organizations (CROs) and collaborating institutions to synthesize and test 878 compounds for biological activity against proteases (Nsp5, Nsp3, TMPRSS2), nucleocapsid N, RdRP (only the Nsp12 domain), and (alpha) spike protein S. Overall, 27 compounds with weak inhibition/binding were experimentally identified by binding-, cleavage-, and/or viral suppression assays and are presented here. Open science approaches such as the one presented here contribute to the knowledge base of future drug discovery efforts in finding better SARS-CoV-2 treatments.
Generative flow networks (GFlowNets) are amortized variational inference algorithms that treat sampling from a distribution over composition… (see more)al objects as a sequential decision-making problem with a learnable action policy. Unlike other algorithms for hierarchical sampling that optimize a variational bound, GFlowNet algorithms can stably run off-policy, which can be advantageous for discovering modes of the target distribution. Despite this flexibility in the choice of behaviour policy, the optimal way of efficiently selecting trajectories for training has not yet been systematically explored. In this paper, we view the choice of trajectories for training as an active learning problem and approach it using Bayesian techniques inspired by methods for multi-armed bandits. The proposed algorithm, Thompson sampling GFlowNets (TS-GFN), maintains an approximate posterior distribution over policies and samples trajectories from this posterior for training. We show in two domains that TS-GFN yields improved exploration and thus faster convergence to the target distribution than the off-policy exploration strategies used in past work.
Epistemic Uncertainty is a measure of the lack of knowledge of a learner which diminishes with more evidence. While existing work focuses on… (see more) using the variance of the Bayesian posterior due to parameter uncertainty as a measure of epistemic uncertainty, we argue that this does not capture the part of lack of knowledge induced by model misspecification. We discuss how the excess risk, which is the gap between the generalization error of a predictor and the Bayes predictor, is a sound measure of epistemic uncertainty which captures the effect of model misspecification. We thus propose a principled framework for directly estimating the excess risk by learning a secondary predictor for the generalization error and subtracting an estimate of aleatoric uncertainty, i.e., intrinsic unpredictability. We discuss the merits of this novel measure of epistemic uncertainty, and highlight how it differs from variance-based measures of epistemic uncertainty and addresses its major pitfall. Our framework, Direct Epistemic Uncertainty Prediction (DEUP) is particularly interesting in interactive learning environments, where the learner is allowed to acquire novel examples in each round. Through a wide set of experiments, we illustrate how existing methods in sequential model optimization can be improved with epistemic uncertainty estimates from DEUP, and how DEUP can be used to drive exploration in reinforcement learning. We also evaluate the quality of uncertainty estimates from DEUP for probabilistic image classification and predicting synergies of drug combinations.
Generative flow networks (GFlowNets) are a family of algorithms for training a sequential sampler of discrete objects under an unnormalized … (see more)target density and have been successfully used for various probabilistic modeling tasks. Existing training objectives for GFlowNets are either local to states or transitions, or propagate a reward signal over an entire sampling trajectory. We argue that these alternatives represent opposite ends of a gradient bias-variance tradeoff and propose a way to exploit this tradeoff to mitigate its harmful effects. Inspired by the TD(
Deep learning bears promise for drug discovery problems such as de novo molecular design. Generating data to train such models is a costly a… (see more)nd time-consuming process, given the need for wet-lab experiments or expensive simulations. This problem is compounded by the notorious data-hungriness of machine learning algorithms. In small molecule generation the recently proposed GFlowNet method has shown good performance in generating diverse high-scoring candidates, and has the interesting advantage of being an off-policy offline method. Finding an appropriate generalization evaluation metric for such models, one predictive of the desired search performance (i.e. finding high-scoring diverse candidates), will help guide online data collection for such an algorithm. In this work, we develop techniques for evaluating GFlowNet performance on a test set, and identify the most promising metric for predicting generalization. We present empirical results on several small-molecule design tasks in drug discovery, for several GFlowNet training setups, and we find a metric strongly correlated with diverse high-scoring batch generation. This metric should be used to identify the best generative model from which to sample batches of molecules to be evaluated.