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Publications
In-Context Parametric Inference: Point or Distribution Estimators?
Bayesian and frequentist inference are two fundamental paradigms in statistical estimation. Bayesian methods treat hypotheses as random vari… (see more)ables, incorporating priors and updating beliefs via Bayes' theorem, whereas frequentist methods assume fixed but unknown hypotheses, relying on estimators like maximum likelihood. While extensive research has compared these approaches, the frequentist paradigm of obtaining point estimates has become predominant in deep learning, as Bayesian inference is challenging due to the computational complexity and the approximation gap of posterior estimation methods. However, a good understanding of trade-offs between the two approaches is lacking in the regime of amortized estimators, where in-context learners are trained to estimate either point values via maximum likelihood or maximum a posteriori estimation, or full posteriors using normalizing flows, score-based diffusion samplers, or diagonal Gaussian approximations, conditioned on observations. To help resolve this, we conduct a rigorous comparative analysis spanning diverse problem settings, from linear models to shallow neural networks, with a robust evaluation framework assessing both in-distribution and out-of-distribution generalization on tractable tasks. Our experiments indicate that amortized point estimators generally outperform posterior inference, though the latter remain competitive in some low-dimensional problems, and we further discuss why this might be the case.
We formulate a unifying framework for *unsupervised continual learning (UCL)*, which disentangles learning objectives that are specific to t… (see more)he present and the past data, encompassing *stability*, *plasticity*, and *cross-task consolidation*. The framework reveals that many existing UCL approaches overlook cross-task consolidation and try to balance plasticity and stability in a shared embedding space. This results in worse performance due to a lack of within-task data diversity and reduced effectiveness in learning the current task. Our method, *Osiris*, which explicitly optimizes all three objectives on separate embedding spaces, achieves state-of-the-art performance on all benchmarks, including two novel ones proposed in this paper featuring semantically structured task sequences. Finally, we show some preliminary evidence that continual models can benefit from such more realistic learning scenarios.
2025-02-17
Proceedings of The 3rd Conference on Lifelong Learning Agents (published)
We investigate the emergence of intuitive physics understanding in general-purpose deep neural network models trained to predict masked regi… (see more)ons in natural videos. Leveraging the violation-of-expectation framework, we find that video prediction models trained to predict outcomes in a learned representation space demonstrate an understanding of various intuitive physics properties, such as object permanence and shape consistency. In contrast, video prediction in pixel space and multimodal large language models, which reason through text, achieve performance closer to chance. Our comparisons of these architectures reveal that jointly learning an abstract representation space while predicting missing parts of sensory input, akin to predictive coding, is sufficient to acquire an understanding of intuitive physics, and that even models trained on one week of unique video achieve above chance performance. This challenges the idea that core knowledge -- a set of innate systems to help understand the world -- needs to be hardwired to develop an understanding of intuitive physics.
We investigate the emergence of intuitive physics understanding in general-purpose deep neural network models trained to predict masked regi… (see more)ons in natural videos. Leveraging the violation-of-expectation framework, we find that video prediction models trained to predict outcomes in a learned representation space demonstrate an understanding of various intuitive physics properties, such as object permanence and shape consistency. In contrast, video prediction in pixel space and multimodal large language models, which reason through text, achieve performance closer to chance. Our comparisons of these architectures reveal that jointly learning an abstract representation space while predicting missing parts of sensory input, akin to predictive coding, is sufficient to acquire an understanding of intuitive physics, and that even models trained on one week of unique video achieve above chance performance. This challenges the idea that core knowledge -- a set of innate systems to help understand the world -- needs to be hardwired to develop an understanding of intuitive physics.
Meta-analyses are usually conducted on small amounts of “trusted” data, ideally from randomized, controlled trials. Excluding untrusted … (see more)(observational) data — such as medical records and related scientific literature — avoids potential confounding and ensures unbiased conclusions. Unfortunately, this exclusion can reduce predictive accuracy to the point of clinical irrelevance, especially when trials are heterogeneous. This paper shows how untrusted data can be safely incorporated into meta-analysis, improving predictions without sacrificing rigor or introducing unproven assumptions. Our approach, called conformal meta-analysis, consists of (1) learning a (potentially flawed) prior distribution from the untrusted data, (2) using the prior and trusted data to derive a simple, fully-conformal prediction interval for the observed trial effect, and (3) analytically extracting an interval for the true (unobserved) effect. In multiple experiments on healthcare datasets, our algorithms deliver tighter, sounder intervals than traditional ones. This paper conceptually realigns meta-analysis as a foundation for evidence-based medicine, embracing heterogeneity and untrusted data for more nuanced, precise predictions.
2025-02-17
Proceedings of the 4th Machine Learning for Health Symposium (published)
Few-shot learning has recently attracted significant interest in drug discovery, with a recent, fast-growing literature mostly involving con… (see more)voluted meta-learning strategies. We revisit the more straightforward fine-tuning approach for molecular data, and propose a regularized quadratic-probe loss based on the the Mahalanobis distance. We design a dedicated block-coordinate descent optimizer, which avoid the degenerate solutions of our loss. Interestingly, our simple fine-tuning approach achieves highly competitive performances in comparison to state-of-the-art methods, while being applicable to black-box settings and removing the need for specific episodic pre-training strategies. Furthermore, we introduce a new benchmark to assess the robustness of the competing methods to domain shifts. In this setting, our fine-tuning baseline obtains consistently better results than meta-learning methods.
While transformer-based language models have driven the AI revolution thus far, their computational complexity has spurred growing interest … (see more)in viable alternatives, such as structured state space sequence models (SSMs) and Selective SSMs. Among these, Mamba (S6) and its variant Mamba-2 have shown remarkable inference speed ups over transformers while achieving comparable or superior performance on complex language modeling tasks. However, despite these architectural innovations and empirical successes, the fundamental learning capabilities of Mamba remain poorly understood. In this paper, we address this gap by studying in-context learning (ICL) on Markov chains and uncovering a surprising phenomenon: unlike transformers, even a single-layer Mamba efficiently learns the in-context Laplacian smoothing estimator, which is both Bayes and minimax optimal, for all Markovian orders. To explain this, we theoretically characterize the representation capacity of Mamba and reveal the fundamental role of convolution in enabling it to represent the optimal Laplacian smoothing. These theoretical insights align strongly with empirical results and, to the best of our knowledge, represent the first formal connection between Mamba and optimal statistical estimators. Finally, we outline promising research directions inspired by these findings.
Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DPMs) are powerful generative models that have achieved unparalleled success in a number of generative tasks… (see more). In this work, we aim to build inductive biases into the training and sampling of diffusion models to better accommodate the target distribution of the data to model. For topologically structured data, we devise a frequency-based noising operator to purposefully manipulate, and set, these inductive biases. We first show that appropriate manipulations of the noising forward process can lead DPMs to focus on particular aspects of the distribution to learn. We show that different datasets necessitate different inductive biases, and that appropriate frequency-based noise control induces increased generative performance compared to standard diffusion. Finally, we demonstrate the possibility of ignoring information at particular frequencies while learning. We show this in an image corruption and recovery task, where we train a DPM to recover the original target distribution after severe noise corruption.
Recent attention to anthropomorphism -- the attribution of human-like qualities to non-human objects or entities -- of language technologies… (see more) like LLMs has sparked renewed discussions about potential negative impacts of anthropomorphism. To productively discuss the impacts of this anthropomorphism and in what contexts it is appropriate, we need a shared vocabulary for the vast variety of ways that language can be anthropomorphic. In this work, we draw on existing literature and analyze empirical cases of user interactions with language technologies to develop a taxonomy of textual expressions that can contribute to anthropomorphism. We highlight challenges and tensions involved in understanding linguistic anthropomorphism, such as how all language is fundamentally human and how efforts to characterize and shift perceptions of humanness in machines can also dehumanize certain humans. We discuss ways that our taxonomy supports more precise and effective discussions of and decisions about anthropomorphism of language technologies.
Recent attention to anthropomorphism -- the attribution of human-like qualities to non-human objects or entities -- of language technologies… (see more) like LLMs has sparked renewed discussions about potential negative impacts of anthropomorphism. To productively discuss the impacts of this anthropomorphism and in what contexts it is appropriate, we need a shared vocabulary for the vast variety of ways that language can be anthropomorphic. In this work, we draw on existing literature and analyze empirical cases of user interactions with language technologies to develop a taxonomy of textual expressions that can contribute to anthropomorphism. We highlight challenges and tensions involved in understanding linguistic anthropomorphism, such as how all language is fundamentally human and how efforts to characterize and shift perceptions of humanness in machines can also dehumanize certain humans. We discuss ways that our taxonomy supports more precise and effective discussions of and decisions about anthropomorphism of language technologies.
