Eric Elmoznino

Next-Token Prediction Should be Ambiguity-Sensitive: A Meta-Learning Perspective

The rapid adaptation ability of auto-regressive foundation models is often attributed to the diversity of their pre-training data. This is b… (see more)ecause, from a Bayesian standpoint, minimizing prediction error in such settings requires integrating over all plausible latent hypotheses consistent with observations. While this behavior is desirable in principle, it often proves too ambitious in practice: under high ambiguity, the number of plausible latent alternatives makes Bayes-optimal prediction computationally intractable. Cognitive science has long recognized this limitation, suggesting that under such conditions, heuristics or information-seeking strategies are preferable to exhaustive inference. Translating this insight to next-token prediction, we hypothesize that low- and high-ambiguity predictions pose different computational demands, making ambiguity-agnostic next-token prediction a detrimental inductive bias. To test this, we introduce MetaHMM, a synthetic sequence meta-learning benchmark with rich compositional structure and a tractable Bayesian oracle. We show that Transformers indeed struggle with high-ambiguity predictions across model sizes. Motivated by cognitive theories, we propose a method to convert pre-trained models into Monte Carlo predictors that decouple task inference from token prediction. Preliminary results show substantial gains in ambiguous contexts through improved capacity allocation and test-time scalable inference, though challenges remain.

2025-06-19

ArXiv (preprint)

Next-Token Prediction Should be Ambiguity-Sensitive : A Meta-Learing Perspective

2025-06-11

ICML.cc/2025/Workshop/ES-FoMo-III (published)

Does learning the right latent variables necessarily improve in-context learning?

Large autoregressive models like Transformers can solve tasks through in-context learning (ICL) without learning new weights, suggesting ave… (see more)nues for efficiently solving new tasks. For many tasks, e.g., linear regression, the data factorizes: examples are independent given a task latent that generates the data, e.g., linear coefficients. While an optimal predictor leverages this factorization by inferring task latents, it is unclear if Transformers implicitly do so or if they instead exploit heuristics and statistical shortcuts enabled by attention layers. Both scenarios have inspired active ongoing work. In this paper, we systematically investigate the effect of explicitly inferring task latents. We minimally modify the Transformer architecture with a bottleneck designed to prevent shortcuts in favor of more structured solutions, and then compare performance against standard Transformers across various ICL tasks. Contrary to intuition and some recent works, we find little discernible difference between the two; biasing towards task-relevant latent variables does not lead to better out-of-distribution performance, in general. Curiously, we find that while the bottleneck effectively learns to extract latent task variables from context, downstream processing struggles to utilize them for robust prediction. Our study highlights the intrinsic limitations of Transformers in achieving structured ICL solutions that generalize, and shows that while inferring the right latents aids interpretability, it is not sufficient to alleviate this problem.

2025-05-01

ICML.cc/2025/Conference (poster)

In-context learning and Occam's razor

Mahan Fathi

A central goal of machine learning is generalization. While the No Free Lunch Theorem states that we cannot obtain theoretical guarantees fo… (see more)r generalization without further assumptions, in practice we observe that simple models which explain the training data generalize best: a principle called Occam's razor. Despite the need for simple models, most current approaches in machine learning only minimize the training error, and at best indirectly promote simplicity through regularization or architecture design. Here, we draw a connection between Occam's razor and in-context learning: an emergent ability of certain sequence models like Transformers to learn at inference time from past observations in a sequence. In particular, we show that the next-token prediction loss used to train in-context learners is directly equivalent to a data compression technique called prequential coding, and that minimizing this loss amounts to jointly minimizing both the training error and the complexity of the model that was implicitly learned from context. Our theory and the empirical experiments we use to support it not only provide a normative account of in-context learning, but also elucidate the shortcomings of current in-context learning methods, suggesting ways in which they can be improved. We make our code available at https://github.com/3rdCore/PrequentialCode.

2025-05-01

ICML.cc/2025/Conference (poster)

Towards a Formal Theory of Representational Compositionality

Compositionality is believed to be fundamental to intelligence. In humans, it underlies the structure of thought and language. In AI, it ena… (see more)bles a powerful form of out-of-distribution generalization, in which a model systematically adapts to novel combinations of known concepts. However, while we have strong intuitions about what compositionality is, we lack satisfying formal definitions for it. Here, we propose such a definition called representational compositionality that is conceptually simple, quantitative, and grounded in algorithmic information theory. Intuitively, representational compositionality states that a compositional representation is both expressive and describable as a simple function of parts. We validate our definition on both real and synthetic data, and show how it unifies disparate intuitions from across the literature in both AI and cognitive science. We hope that our definition can inspire the design of novel, theoretically-driven models that better capture the mechanisms of compositional thought. We make our code available at https://github.com/EricElmoznino/complexity_compositionality.

2025-05-01

ICML.cc/2025/Conference (poster)

Multi-agent cooperation through learning-aware policy gradients

Alexander Meulemans

Seijin Kobayashi

Johannes Von Oswald

Nino Scherrer

Eric Elmoznino

Blake Richards

Guillaume Lajoie

Blaise Aguera y Arcas

João Sacramento

Self-interested individuals often fail to cooperate, posing a fundamental challenge for multi-agent learning. How can we achieve cooperation… (see more) among self-interested, independent learning agents? Promising recent work has shown that in certain tasks cooperation can be established between learning-aware agents who model the learning dynamics of each other. Here, we present the first unbiased, higher-derivative-free policy gradient algorithm for learning-aware reinforcement learning, which takes into account that other agents are themselves learning through trial and error based on multiple noisy trials. We then leverage efficient sequence models to condition behavior on long observation histories that contain traces of the learning dynamics of other agents. Training long-context policies with our algorithm leads to cooperative behavior and high returns on standard social dilemmas, including a challenging environment where temporally-extended action coordination is required. Finally, we derive from the iterated prisoner's dilemma a novel explanation for how and when cooperation arises among self-interested learning-aware agents.

2025-01-22

ICLR.cc/2025/Conference (poster)

A Complexity-Based Theory of Compositionality

Compositionality is believed to be fundamental to intelligence. In humans, it underlies the structure of thought, language, and higher-level… (see more) reasoning. In AI, compositional representations can enable a powerful form of out-of-distribution generalization, in which a model systematically adapts to novel combinations of known concepts. However, while we have strong intuitions about what compositionality is, there currently exists no formal definition for it that is measurable and mathematical. Here, we propose such a definition, which we call representational compositionality, that accounts for and extends our intuitions about compositionality. The definition is conceptually simple, quantitative, grounded in algorithmic information theory, and applicable to any representation. Intuitively, representational compositionality states that a compositional representation satisfies three properties. First, it must be expressive. Second, it must be possible to re-describe the representation as a function of discrete symbolic sequences with re-combinable parts, analogous to sentences in natural language. Third, the function that relates these symbolic sequences to the representation, analogous to semantics in natural language, must be simple. Through experiments on both synthetic and real world data, we validate our definition of compositionality and show how it unifies disparate intuitions from across the literature in both AI and cognitive science. We also show that representational compositionality, while theoretically intractable, can be readily estimated using standard deep learning tools. Our definition has the potential to inspire the design of novel, theoretically-driven models that better capture the mechanisms of compositional thought.

2024-10-18

ArXiv (preprint)

A Complexity-Based Theory of Compositionality

2024-10-18

ArXiv (preprint)

Explicit Knowledge Factorization Meets In-Context Learning: What Do We Gain?

2024-03-05

ICLR.cc/2024/Workshop/R2-FM (poster)

Sources of richness and ineffability for phenomenally conscious states

Xu Ji

Eric Elmoznino

George Deane

Axel Constant

Guillaume Dumas

Guillaume Lajoie

Jonathan Simon

Yoshua Bengio

2024-03-01

Neuroscience of Consciousness (published)

Amortizing intractable inference in large language models

Edward J Hu

Moksh J. Jain

Autoregressive large language models (LLMs) compress knowledge from their training data through next-token conditional distributions. This l… (see more)imits tractable querying of this knowledge to start-to-end autoregressive sampling. However, many tasks of interest -- including sequence continuation, infilling, and other forms of constrained generation -- involve sampling from intractable posterior distributions. We address this limitation by using amortized Bayesian inference to sample from these intractable posteriors. Such amortization is algorithmically achieved by fine-tuning LLMs via diversity-seeking reinforcement learning algorithms: generative flow networks (GFlowNets). We empirically demonstrate that this distribution-matching paradigm of LLM fine-tuning can serve as an effective alternative to maximum-likelihood training and reward-maximizing policy optimization. As an important application, we interpret chain-of-thought reasoning as a latent variable modeling problem and demonstrate that our approach enables data-efficient adaptation of LLMs to tasks that require multi-step rationalization and tool use.

2024-01-16

ICLR.cc/2024/Conference (oral)