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Mohamad Elmasri

Alumni

Publications

Predictive inference for travel time on transportation networks
Mohamad Elmasri
Aurélie Labbe
Denis Larocque
Laurent Charlin
2023-12-01
The Annals of Applied Statistics (published)
doi.org
arxiv.org
Inference for travel time on transportation networks
Mohamad Elmasri
Aurélie Labbe
Denis Larocque
Laurent Charlin
Travel time is essential for making travel decisions in real-world transportation networks. Understanding its distribution can resolve many … (see more)fundamental problems in transportation. Empirically, single-edge travel-time is well studied, but how to aggregate such information over many edges to arrive at the distribution of travel time over a route is still daunting. A range of statistical tools have been developed for network analysis; tools to study statistical behaviors of processes on dynamical networks are still lacking. This paper develops a novel statistical perspective to specific type of mixing ergodic processes (travel time), that mimic the behavior of travel time on real-world networks. Under general conditions on the single-edge speed (resistance) distribution, we show that travel time, normalized by distance, follows a Gaussian distribution with universal mean and variance parameters. We propose efficient inference methods for such parameters, and consequently asymptotic universal confidence and prediction intervals of travel time. We further develop path(route)-specific parameters that enable tighter Gaussian-based prediction intervals. We illustrate our methods with a real-world case study using mobile GPS data, where we show that the route-specific and universal intervals both achieve the 95\% theoretical coverage levels. Moreover, the route-specific prediction intervals result in tighter bounds that outperform competing models.
Prediction intervals for travel time on transportation networks
Mohamad Elmasri
Aurélie Labbe
Denis Larocque
Laurent Charlin
Estimating travel-time is essential for making travel decisions in transportation networks. Empirically, single road-segment travel-time is … (see more)well studied, but how to aggregate such information over many edges to arrive at the distribution of travel time over a route is still theoretically challenging. Understanding travel-time distribution can help resolve many fundamental problems in transportation, quantifying travel uncertainty as an example. We develop a novel statistical perspective to specific types of dynamical processes that mimic the behavior of travel time on real-world networks. We show that, under general conditions, travel-time normalized by distance, follows a Gaussian distribution with route-invariant (universal) location and scale parameters. We develop efficient inference methods for such parameters, with which we propose asymptotic universal confidence and prediction intervals of travel time. We further develop our theory to include road-segment level information to construct route-specific location and scale parameter sequences that produce tighter route-specific Gaussian-based prediction intervals. We illustrate our methods with a real-world case study using precollected mobile GPS data, where we show that the route-specific and route-invariant intervals both achieve the 95\% theoretical coverage levels, where the former result in tighter bounds that also outperform competing models.